Evidence suggests that Irish growth & the economy is slowly recovering
GROWTH WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPORTS AS DOMESTIC DEMAND SLUGGISH
“Unemployment (both short- and long-term) began to fall towards the end of last year. If our forecasts prove to be correct, then this means an annual average below 300,000 unemployed in 2014.” Photograph: Frank Miller
In the ESRI’s latest outlook for the Irish economy, we forecast that growth will improve in 2013 and 2014. If we are right, growth, as measured by GNP, will amount to 1 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2014. The corresponding growth rates for GDP are 1.8 and 2.7 per cent. As has been the case over the past number of years, this growth will be primarily due to increasing exports and we expect that this export growth will continue to be driven predominantly by the service sector. We are currently forecasting that domestic demand will grow by around 0.7 per cent in 2013 and 2014.
If the growth rates we forecast are realised, what will they mean for the Irish economy? One of the main impacts of the crisis has been a sharp increase in the numbers unemployed. We would expect to see some reduction in the unemployment rate to an annual average just below 14 per cent in 2014. Indeed, unemployment (both short and long term) began to fall towards the end of last year. If our forecasts prove to be correct, then this means an annual average below 300,000 unemployed in 2014.
While this is a positive development, it is not all due to job creation. Unfortunately some of the reduction will reflect continuing high emigration. It is hoped that as we move into 2014 an increasing amount of the fall in unemployment will be due to job creation and that emigration levels will be lower.
If there is, as we anticipate, some recovery in the labour market over the next two years then we expect that there will be some moderate increases in average annual earnings. Because of high unemployment and continuing uncertainty in the economic outlook, we would expect that households will continue to save for precautionary reasons, so the saving rate will remain high. In addition, since households are continuing to pay down accumulated debt, it is likely that any growth in household consumption will be moderate.
The public finances look set to benefit from a combination of economic recovery and the deals on promissory notes and extending the maturity of EU/IMF programme loans. Taking account of these it looks likely that the deficit targets set as part of the bailout programme will continue to be met and probably exceeded.
However, we argue again in this commentary that the remaining consolidation measures should be introduced as planned. This is because uncertainty remains for domestic and international growth. Even at the end of the consolidation process the government will still be running a deficit. In addition there is a continued need to reduce government debt. At the end of 2013 it is estimated the debt will be €207 billion, equivalent to 123 per cent of GDP. Such a high debt means interest costs of approximately €8 billion this year.
Our forecasts of growth in the Irish economy are based on forecasts showing the European economy returning to growth in 2014. This is a crucial assumption.
In recent years forecasts for economic growth in Ireland’s main trading partners have been consistently revised downwards. For example, over the past two years, forecasts for world economic growth have been revised from approximately 4 per cent in 2013 to around 3.3 per cent. The expectation at present is that growth in the world economy will pick up in 2014.
If the anticipated international upturn does not occur, then the outlook for the Irish economy is less positive than we have forecast. However, what the current forecasts do suggest is that the Irish economy is slowly recovering.
Dr David Duffy, research officer with the Economic and Social Research Institute, co-authored the latest ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary with research assistant Kevin Timoney.
30,000 Irish people a day are now sending in property tax returns
With less than two weeks to go until the final deadline for paying the property tax,
The revenue service says that more than 30,000 homeowners a day are returning their property tax forms as the deadline for the charge draws close.
More than 845,000 property owners have so far paid the charge, exactly two-thirds of whom have used the internet to make the payment. The remaining third have paid the charge by letter.
Revenue said the rate of payment has increased in recent days as the deadline of Tuesday 28 May draws closer, and has urged homeowners planning to pay to register on the website.
Anyone who received a property tax form despite not being the owner of a property has been asked to contact Revenue with the contact details of the person who is liable for the charge. Revenue has repeatedly said that the onus is on people who receive the form to correct mistakes or else face being pursed for the charge.
Revenue Commissioners say they have received more than 330,000 phone calls to the property tax helpline as homeowners attempt to ascertain the value of their homes and the correct band the property falls into in order to determine how much tax to pay.
Health warning for people to avoid retiring early
Research shows there is a small boost in health immediately after retirement but that, over the longer term, there is a significant deterioration.
Research found that both mental and physical health can suffer.
It suggests retirement increases the likelihood of suffering from clinical depression by 40pc and the chance of having at least one diagnosed physical condition by about 60pc. The probability of taking medication for such a condition rises by about 60pc as well, according to the findings.
People who are retired are 40pc less likely than others to describe themselves as being in very good or excellent health.
Benefits
The length of time spent in retirement can also cause further disadvantages.
The study was carried out by Britain’s Institute of Economic Affairs and the Age Endeavour Fellowship. It concluded that, for men and women alike, “there seem to exist longer-term health benefits of employment among older people”.
Its authors said: “This, in turn, indicates that politicians do not face a trade-off between improving the health of the older population, increasing economic growth, decreasing health spending among the elderly and producing solvent pension systems.
“The policy implication is that impediments to continuing paid work in old age should be decreased. This does not necessarily mean that people should be expected to work full-time until they die, but rather that public policy should remove the strong financial incentives to retire at earlier ages.”
Philip Booth, of the Institute of Economic Affairs, said: “Over several decades, governments have failed to deal with the ‘demographic time bomb’.
“There is now general agreement that pension ages should be raised. Working longer will not only be an economic necessity, it also helps people to live healthier lives.”
Edward Datnow, of the Age Endeavour Fellowship, said: “Those seeking to retire should think very hard about whether it is their best option.”
Clinical trials the best method we have for assessing medicines and treatments
CLINICAL TRIALS ARE THE BEST METHOD WE HAVE FOR ASSESSING MEDICINES AND TREATMENTS. SO WHY IS CLINICAL-TRIAL ACTIVITY IN IRELAND AND EUROPE IN DECLINE?
What have cider, elixir of vitriol, vinegar, seawater, citrus fruits and spicy barley water got in common? They were the “treatments” given to six pairs of sailors suffering from scurvy aboard HMS Salisbury in 1747 by Royal Navy physician, James Lind.
Scurvy is a condition characterised by bleeding gums, stiff joints and slow wound-healing. The sailors given the citrus fruits recovered demonstrably more than any other pair, a result we now know was attributable to Vitamin C.
This experiment, carried out almost 300 years ago, is commonly viewed as the first “clinical trial”. May 20th is World Clinical Trials Day, a celebration of this experimental tool, arguably one of the most important means to improving health.
In simple terms, the purpose of a clinical trial is to prove a medicine works and is safe for humans. Prior to the advent of proper clinical trials, many drugs were introduced to the market that did not meet these requirements.
The thousands of children born with limb defects due to thalidomide, which was prescribed to pregnant women with morning sickness, dramatically attest to this. More recently, poorly interpreted clinical-trials data contributed to the MMR scare in the late 1990s, led by Andrew Wakefield. The spike in measles cases observed recently in the UK, arising from reduced immunisation rates, illustrates clearly the consequence of this.
It’s regrettable that certain forms of “medicines” escape the rigour of proper scientific and clinical validation. The so-called cures of many homeopathic remedies are most likely attributable to the placebo effect, a phenomenon observed in a patient following a particular treatment that arises from the patient’s expectations concerning the treatment, rather than from the treatment itself. A properly designed clinical trial can eliminate such biases when testing the claims of a particular therapy and accurately gauge whether it is effective or not.
Positive outcomes
On the plus side, and thankfully the clinical-trials story is mostly a positive one, many medicines have been approved by the relevant regulatory bodies. These have been assessed and proven safe and effective by this most pivotal of scientific tools.
On the plus side, and thankfully the clinical-trials story is mostly a positive one, many medicines have been approved by the relevant regulatory bodies. These have been assessed and proven safe and effective by this most pivotal of scientific tools.
Pause a moment and look at this list, which samples just a few medicines that have been vetted by the clinical trial: the contraceptive pill, vaccines, cholesterol-lowering drugs. It is probable that the life of someone close to you, perhaps even your life, has been improved or saved by a treatment approved for use following clinical trial.
The randomised, controlled trial, the most modern form of clinical trial, was recently voted in a top 20 of great British innovations, along with illustrious companions such as the world wide web and Turing’s virtual machine.
Unfortunately, clinical trials activity in Ireland, as in much of Europe, is declining. There is much debate on this topic but in my view the cause is essentially this: the burden of proof to demonstrate a medicine’s safety and effectiveness has, rightly, become very high but the systems to support meeting that burden are struggling to cope. Such systems include legislation, regulation, research-led clinical care and patient participation.
There are considerable developments afoot in many of these areas including imminent changes to our clinical trials legislation. Driven from Brussels, it will effectively create a common market for approval of treatments, operating to a single, high standard across Europe.
Other changes in our clinical research infrastructure, such as the networking of our clinical-research centres, should complement the legislative changes to help meet the requirements to prove a medicine’s safety and effectiveness in an efficient manner.
However, these alone will not deliver a well-functioning clinical-trials system in Ireland. Patient participation is required at levels substantially above where they are today. Whilst legislation, research infrastructure and so on are matters of resource allocation and commitment to implementation, patient participation is a more challenging, cultural matter.
At the individual level, there are significant advantages to participating in clinical trials, such as early access to new medicines. However, the real benefit is not at the level of the individual but at the level of society. The cumulative effect of patients participating in clinical studies and trials is to generate new medical knowledge that can be put into practice in preventing, diagnosing and treating disease.
In many ways, participating in a clinical trial is much like donating blood. Both are matters of civic responsibility and a high donor/participation rate is an indicator of a society investing in itself.
For those of us responsible for the clinical-trials system, it is critical we build it and deliver it with the patient at the centre, on a firm foundation of trust. On Monday, when we celebrate World Clinical Trials Day, let us recognise that we have come far but we have some way to go.
New hospital re-grouping to improve patient safety in Galway Hospital’s
Patient safety at Galway’s three public hospitals will improve under the new hospital grouping unveiled this week, according to Galway Senator Fidelma Healy Eames.
Patient safety at Galway’s three public hospitals will improve under the new hospital grouping unveiled this week by Health Minister James Reilly.
That’s according to Galway Senator Fidelma Healy Eames, who has welcomed the announcement that University Hospital Galway, Merlin Park Hospital and Portiuncula are to form the West/North West Hospital Group with hospitals in Roscommon, Sligo, Letterkenny and Mayo General Hospital.
“I believe that this new configuration will give a greater level of autonomy to UCHG/Merlin Park and will result in better service provision, the retention of well trained staff and the development of specialties in smaller hospitals,” said Senator Healy Eames.
She added that each hospital in the group will play a significant role in the provision of services. “This benefits all hospitals in the group. The grouping of these hospitals will enable each hospital to specialise in certain procedures and should result in reductions in waiting lists and the number of people on trolleys,” she said.
Senator Healy Eames added that, since the establishment of the pilot Galway/Roscommon grouping last year, there has been a notable improvement for patients.
“Waiting lists over nine months for inpatient and day case procedures were eliminated in each of the hospitals by the end of 2012. Across the group, the number of patients counted on trolleys fell by 37 per cent last year. This is substantially larger than the national reduction of 23 per cent.
“In future, staff will be recruited to the West/North West Hospital Group rather than to an individual hospital. This ensures that patients in Galway will have access to world class medical staff. The increased flexibility of staff will enable a reduction in the hours for junior doctors, which will improve patient safety at Galway hospitals.”
Human race are to blame for our climate change
A review of 12,000 scientific papers has found the consensus among scientists that humans are to blame for climate change is “overwhelming” and the dissenting view was held by less than two per cent of scientists.
A review of 12,000 scientific papers has found the consensus among scientists that humans are to blame for climate change is “overwhelming”
The survey – the largest peer-reviewed study of its kind – found that a third of papers expressed a view on the causes of global warming – and 97.1 per cent of these said it was mainly man-made. It found a growing consensus among scientists that human activity, led by the use of fossil fuels, was the main cause of rising temperatures.
The lead author, John Cook, a fellow at the University of Queensland and founder of the website skepticalscience.com, said the findings debunked widely-held perceptions of a scientific debate about global warming.
“There is a gaping chasm between the actual consensus and the public perception,” he said.
“There is a strong scientific agreement about the cause of climate change, despite public perceptions to the contrary When people understand that scientists agree on global warming, they’re more likely to support policies that take action on it.”
The survey, published in Environmental Research Letters, examined 11,944 scientific abstracts published between 1991 to 2011.
Mr Cook said the number of papers rejecting the consensus was “vanishingly small”. Increasingly, he said, scientists did not see the need to express a position on the causes of climate change in journal abstracts “just as geographers find no reason to remind readers that the earth is round”.
“When people think scientists agree, they are more likely to support a carbon tax or general climate action,” he told The Age.
“But if they think scientists are still arguing about it, they don’t want to do anything about it.”
A survey in the United States last October found 43 per cent of Americans thought scientists were divided on man-made global warming while 45 per cent thought there was a consensus. Global average surface temperatures have risen by 1.4F (0.8C) since the industrial revolution.
A co-author of the new study, Mark Richardson, from the University of Reading, said: “If people disagree with what we’ve found we want to know.”
No comments:
Post a Comment