Ireland to face twice yearly monitoring despite bailout exit
IRELAND’s will still face twice yearly monitoring from the troika even though we’re leaving the bailout under Eurozone rules for countries leaving programmes.
Dutch finance minister and chair of the group of Eurozone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem said last night Ireland would face “intensive surveillance” twice a year for a period of time, but he that said discussions had not yet taken place.
And the exits from the bailouts by Ireland and Spain show that austerity works, despite all the criticism, a senior European Central Bank (ECB) official said this morning.
Ahead of a meeting of Europe’s finance ministers in Brussels, ECB Executive Board Member Joerg Asmussen congratulated both countries.
The Government announced yesterday that it would be making a “clean exit” from the bailout, without the help of a so-called precautionary credit line
“In our view it really shows that despite all the criticism the adjustment programmes can work,” Mr Asmussen said.
“And the absolute precondition that they can be successful is that you have real ownership of the programme. This is key also for the other programme countries.”
Meanwhile, ministers will today discuss the so-called backstops that must be in place ahead of next year’s European wide stress tests.
Mr Asmussen said euro zone governments must put in place ways to financially support their banks in case they need more capital as a result of health checks.
If gaps are found on the bank balance sheets, the shortfall will have to be made up, either by bank’s private investors or potentially with state support.
ECB chief Mario Draghi has said that he believes a “public backstop” for banks must also be available, although that could mean hitting states for any shortfall.
That piles pressure on Europe’s political leaders to either create pools of cash available to help banks or to push back by insisting that the private sector takes any fresh pain.
“From the ECB side we always said it is absolutely necessary that we have credible backstops in place before the whole exercise starts, so we need three layers of backstops, these are first private markets, second domestic budgets or domestic bank rescue funds and the third layer is the European Stability Mechanism (Europe’s bailout pot) as it stands,” Mr Asmussen said.
More than 118,000 Irish people behind in mortgage payments
About 77% of loans 90 days in arrears have yet to be restructured, new figures show
Almost 20 per cent of mortgage holders are still unable to meet their full mortgage repayments, and 81,156 are more than 90 days in arrears, according to new figures from the Department of Finance.
While Ireland’s six main banks upped their pace of permanent mortgage restructures in September, more than three-quarters of mortgages more than three months in arrears have yet to be restructured.
The figures cover 698,809 mortgages at AIB, Bank of Ireland, ACC Bank, Permanent TSB, KBC Ireland and Ulster Bank, and show 118, 438 were in arrears at the end of September. That marks a slight improvement from the end of August when 120,754 mortgages were behind in their payments.
While 18,513 mortgage holders more than 90 days in arrears have entered into permanent or temporary restructures, 62,643, or 77 per cent, have yet to be restructured. While the banks increased the total number of permanent restructures by 3,900 in September, the number of temporary restructures granted was down by 1,485 between August and September.
Restructurings: Including those with arrears of less than 90 days, 45,177 homeowners had been granted a permanent restructure of their loan while 28,365 had been given a temporary restructure.
Details of restructurings that have been agreed show that banks remain loath to write off mortgage debt, preferring to extend the term of the loan or grant a period of interest-only payments. Furthermore, the number of repossessions were absent from the figures.
Of those borrowers who had agreed a permanent restructure, an extension of the term of the mortgage was the most popular solution agreed. Some 14,914 (33 per cent) of those who had their loan restructured had the term extended.
An interest-only period was agreed with just 3.5 per cent of restructuring homeowners while split mortgages were agreed with 3,688 mortgage-holders (8.1 per cent).
With regard to temporary restructures, some 52 per cent of homeowners opted for interest only repayments, while 2,497 were granted payment moratoriums.
Set targets: The Department of Finance said the number of accounts in arrears had fallen by 2,316 (2 per cent) between August and September. The number of mortgage accounts in arrears of more than 90 days fell by 1,468.
However, the number of mortgage accounts in arrears of more than 90 days that have not been restructured increased between August and September.
Under the Central Bank’s mortgage arrears plan, Ireland’s financial institutions have until the end of December to reach “concluded arrangements” with 15 per cent of customers more than 90 days in arrears. The banks can write down debt, reschedule the loan, put a new payment plan such as a split mortgage in place or repossess the home.
The Central Bank has also set targets for the end of March 2014 for banks to offer sustainable solutions to 70 per cent of customers in arrears of more than 90 days and concluded solutions to 25 per cent.
Irish consumer confidence hits six-year high but taxes still a threat
IRISH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HIT A SIX-YEAR HIGH IN SEPTEMBER of this year, ACCORDING TO NEW DATA.
The survey was conducted before last month’s Budget, the latest controversy surrounding the property tax, or the revelations this week about the increases set to be imposed on health insurance premiums.
But it points to an improving mood among the public, and it’s not the first survey to do it.
The study from UCD’s Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School and the Market Institute of Ireland concludes that declining unemployment was one of the drivers behind the increased optimism.
Mary Lambkin, UCD professor of marketing, said that while disposable incomes remain under pressure, consumer confidence has returned.
“Increased car sales in recent months are another positive sign, as is the rise in the number of residential property sales,” Ms Lambkin said.
“In addition, the fact that the government Budget was brought forward to October this year, and employment data continues to be positive, should help to ensure that confidence stays upbeat in the final quarter of the year.”
The news comes as a range of recent indicators point to a modest economic recovery, including the Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index which reached an eight-year high.
And on Wednesday data from Europe showed that Ireland recorded the highest increase in industrial production of all member states in September.
The Consumer Market Monitor relies on a model of consumer behaviour which sees economic variables such as income levels, taxes, interest rates and exchange rates influencing consumer confidence which, in turn, influences consumer behaviour including spending, saving and borrowing.
The monitor uses quarterly data collected from various sources including the Central Statistics Office, the Central Bank, the European Commission, and various other secondary sources.
Although a welcome sign, very real difficulties remain that could dent the rise in confidence.
Finance Minister Michael Noonan said this week that there are signs of improving domestic demand since the Budget but it could very well be the case that confidence was impacted by the measures outlined on October 15 last.
In addition, families are facing yet another rise in the cost of their health insurance thanks to a new hike imposed by Health Minister James Reilly, which is likely also to be a drag on confidence.
And don’t forget next year is the first full year of the property tax, with the controversy surrounding the payment options causing quite a stir in recent weeks.
The data all points in the right direction. The trick is to ensure the mood music can be sustained.
Tom Trainor, Marketing Institute chief executive, said the Irish economy is improving slowly but steadily, but disposable incomes are still under pressure.
“Signs of improvement in the jobs and property markets may be making consumers a little more willing to spend,” Mr Trainor said.
“Against that, however, is the fact that the property tax is also a concern that may curtail spending.”
With Diabetes avoid a sedentary lifestyle
Among people with type 2 diabetes, the risk of suffering heart-related complications is directly related to how often they exercise and for how long, a new study has shown.
It is already well established that people with type 2 diabetes are significantly more likely to develop heart disease or suffer a stroke than people without the condition.
It is also well established that exercise can reduce the risk of heart disease and heart-related deaths.
Swedish scientists decided to look into this further. They followed the progress of over 15,000 people with an average age of 60. Almost 7,000 of the participants undertook low levels of activity, while the remainder undertook high levels of activity. All were monitored for five years or until they suffered a heart-related event or death.
Low level activity was defined as exercising for 30 minutes never, once or twice a week. High level activity was defined as exercising for 30 minutes three or more times a week.
The study found that those who only undertook low levels of activity had a 25% increased risk of suffering some sort of heart-related event compared to those who undertook high levels of activity.
They also had a 70% increased risk of dying from a heart-related event.
The results stood even when other factors were taken into account, such as age, smoking and how long they had diabetes.
“The message from this study is clear. Avoid a sedentary lifestyle. Engage in physical activity. Alongside diet, these are the cornerstone of type 2 diabetes treatment. If you are presently on a low level of physical activity, do more,” commented the study’s first author, Dr Björn Zethelius, of the University of Uppsala.
He added that increased physical activity among people with type 2 diabetes could have important public health implications as a result of the increasing prevalence of the disease.
DNA studies shows that dogs originated in Europe
The results of a DNA study suggest that dogs were domesticated in Europe.
No-one doubts that “man’s best friend” is an evolutionary off-shoot of the grey wolf, but scientists have long argued over the precise timing and location for their emergence.
The new research, based on a genetic analysis of ancient and modern dog and wolf samples, points to a European origin at least 18,000 years ago.
It adds a further layer of complexity to the story.
Earlier DNA studies have suggested the modern pooch – in all its shapes and sizes – could track its beginnings back to wolves that attached themselves to human societies in the Middle East or perhaps in East Asia as recently as 15,000 years ago.
The problem with these claims is that palaeontologists have found fossils of distinctly dog-looking animals that are 30,000 years old or more.
Dr Thalmann, from Finland’s University of Turku, and his team, have had another go at trying to sort through the conflicting DNA evidence.
They compared genetic sequences from a wide range of ancient animals – both dogs and wolves – with material taken from living canines – again, from both dogs and wolves.
This analysis reveals modern dogs to be most closely related to ancient European wolves or dogs – not to any of the wolf groups from outside Europe, nor even to modern European wolves (suggesting the link is with old European wolves that are now extinct). And because the dog remains used in the research are dated to be more than 18,000 years old, it indicates a timing for domestication that is much older than some researchers have previously argued.
If correct, it means dogs started to diverge from wolf populations when humans had yet to settle into fixed, agricultural communities and were still hunting and gathering.
The story of how dogs came to be so closely associated with humans is open to debate
It is possible there were wolves that would follow these hunters, may be at a distance at first, living off the scraps and discards from the humans’ big-game kills such as mammoth, before eventually being incorporated into the human groups as they became less wary.
“You can see how wolves benefitted from living near humans because they got these carcases, but humans too would have benefitted,” said Dr Thalmann.
“You have to remember that 18,800-32,000 years ago, Europe had much bigger predators than even wolves, such as bears and hyenas. And you can imagine that having wolves living close to you might be a very useful alarm system,” he told BBC News. “It’s a plausible scenario for the origin of the domestication of dogs.”
The latest study is unlikely to be the last word on the subject, however.
Using DNA – and the subtle changes it undergoes over time – to examine animal origins and relationships is a very powerful tool, but far from fool-proof.
One of the problems scientists have is that dog populations have become very mixed over time, as a result of being moved around by their human owners. This complicates the genetic signal.
The difficulty is further amplified by the fact that some dogs have at times also clearly back-bred with wild wolves. Teasing all this apart is very difficult.
A resolution will require more sampling and more analysis, particularly of the core, or nuclear, DNA of ancient animals.
This and many of the previous studies have relied on so-called mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), a small sub-packet of genetic material in cells that, although incredibly useful, does not represent the fullest information possible.
The larger nuclear DNA material could provide the more compelling answers but it is far harder to retrieve, especially in very old bones or fossils.
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