Donie's Ireland daily news BLOG update

Europe forecasts a lower growth rate for Ireland in 2014

 

The European Commission’s forecast of 1.8% GDP growth is lower than rate cited by Minister for Finance Michael Noonan last week as being a trigger for income tax cuts.

Ireland’s economy is expected to grow by 1.8% this year, the European Commission said this afternoon, putting it at odds with Central Bank estimates last month which predicted that the economy would grow by 2.1% in 2014.

According to the European Commission’s economic growth forecasts published today, Ireland’s economy will grow by 1.8% this year, and 2.9% in 2015. Unemployment is expected to come in at 11.9% this year and 11.2% next year, slightly below the European average.

The figures show that Ireland’s debt to GDP ratio remains stubbornly high at 122.3% last year, though this is expected to dip slightly to 120.3% this year, and 119.7% next. Ireland has the fourth largest debt to GDP ratio in the EU after Greece, Italy and Portugal.

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan said last week that income tax cuts could be made in this year’s budget. He also hinted that a growth rate of over 2% would strengthen the case for income tax cuts. “If various independent forecasters are correct, and the economy is growing faster than the 2% forecast, that should give taxation buoyancy,” he said last week at a conference in Brussels.

Ireland’s relatively high debt to GDP ratio has previously been cited by officials in Dublin as one rationale for Ireland’s bid for further debt relief for its banks through the euro zone’s rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). About a third of the debt to GDP figure relates to the bailout of banks in Ireland.

According to the Commission’s analysis of the Irish economy, the expiry of patents in the pharmaceutical sector could pose a threat to Ireland’s economic progress. However, the country is poised to benefit from faster-than-expected economic growth in the UK, it said.

“Given the importance of UK trade, in particular for indigenous Irish firms, the accelerated rate of UK recovery represents an important upside risk for growth, employment and the current-account position, “the Commission said.

The analysis notes that, after a slow start to 2013, growth began to pick up in the third quarter of last year. “There are indications domestic demand is starting to perform more strongly, as the labour market has continued along a steady path of improvement across different sectors.”

In its forecasts the European Commission also downgraded its forecasts for Italy. It predicts that the Italian economy will expand by 0.6% this year, compared to the figure of 0.7% forecast in November. Italy’s debt will rise to 133.7% of GDP in 2014, one of the highest in the European Union.

Today’s forecasts also suggest that France will miss its deficit targets next year, although the commission raised its forecast for French growth this year to 1 per cent from 0.9%, boosted by consumer spending. France has been under pressure from Brussels to implement structural economic reforms in order to reduce its budget deficit. Among the issues highlighted by the European Commission in today’s report is France’s shrinking share of the export market. “Net exports are expected to provide nil contribution to growth in 2014 and to dampen it again in 2015,” the Commission said.

James Reilly to ban hospital queue jumping under new health insurance plan

  

But patients can still pay out of their own pockets to get the treatment that they can afford.

Families will not be able to jump queues for medical treatment by paying extra under Health Minister James Reilly’s radical health insurance plan.

The reform will have massive implications for the two million people who currently hold private health cover.

Insurance companies will be specifically banned from offering quicker access to hospitals for standard treatments – though they will still be able to offer other benefits such as private rooms.

Regardless of the restrictions that may be placed on companies, it will remain possible for patients to pay upfront out of their own pockets to see a specialist or have an operation if they have fears for their health.

The Universal Health Insurance (UHI) plan, which the minister hopes to have implemented in five years’ time, will ensure everyone gets the same basic package of benefits.

The aim is to end the two-tier health service, where public patients wait longer than private insurance holders for treatment.

The core principle of UHI is healthcare being equally available to each member of society and treatment based solely on medical need, not income. Under the new system, private health insurance companies like the VHI will continue to trade and are likely to have an increase in the number of customers as everyone will have to acquire some form of cover.

Those who can’t afford the premium will have it paid for fully or be heavily subsidised by the State.

Dr Reilly estimated yesterday that the 40pc of the population that holds a medical card will get their health insurance paid in full, with another 30pc getting a heavy subsidy.

But in a complete break from the current two-tier system, which allows private policy holders fast access to specialists and treatments, the new system will specifically forbid queue-jumping – even if you pay more.

The change will mean the 2,052,000 people – roughly half the population – who hold health insurance will no longer have the edge over everybody else in getting treatment faster.

UHI will cover basic GP and acute hospital needs and some people may wish to obtain cover for services outside of that standard package of care.

But paying more for ‘Supplementary Health Insurance’ won’t grant quicker access to treatment.

In explaining how UHI works specifically, the government document says: “No insurer may sell a supplementary health insurance policy conferring faster access to services covered by the standard package of care.”

The reference to preventing faster access is actually contained twice in the document as it also says it won’t be allowed under the basic package under the “principle of social solidarity”.

“Neither insurers nor providers operating within the UHI system will be allowed to sell faster access to services covered by the UHI standard package of care.”

The specific services to be covered by UHI have yet to be determined. The minister plans for the public to be consulted on what to be included.

However, this document does list the components of a “preferred policy option” for inclusion under UHI, as follows:

1. * Universal primary care, including core GP and community nurse services and the maternity and infant care scheme.
2. * Chronic disease and case management for those who meet specific critical criteria.
3. * Rehabilitative care, for a period not exceeding 12 months.
4. * Acute hospital care, including all inpatient, daycare and outpatient care.
5. * Acute mental health care, including acute mental health services provided by community mental health teams, in outpatient clinics, day hospitals, day centres and acute inpatient setting for a period not exceeding 12 months.
6. * Step-down care, provided in a residential care setting or in a person’s home for a defined period of time.

The change-over to UHI to end the two-tier system of access is the agreed policy of the Coalition.

Fine Gael and the Labour Party both campaigned for the policy and it is included in the Programme for Government.

Labour was making the case for UHI for almost a decade before Fine Gael came on board.

Dr Reilly’s draft of the consultation document, known as a White Paper, was discussed by ministers last night and is due to be published in the coming weeks.

The paper has come under fire for lacking detail on the cost of UHI, with the Department of Finance and Department of Public Expenditure expressing concern about the financial implications.

Dr Reilly has sought to assuage these concerns by saying there will be a cap on the amount of money to be spent by the State, which will be linked to national income.

Nonetheless, the document contains no specifics on the costs associated with the switch to UHI – either to the public or the Exchequer.

Son receives suspended sentence for attempted murder of his Mother

   

GERALD VOLLRATH 2ND FROM RIGHT PIC. ABOVE ADMITTED HOLDING A PILLOW TO HIS DYING MOTHER’S FACE

Gerard Vollrath has been spared jail and given a suspended three-year sentence after pleading guilty to the attempted murder of his elderly mother in a nursing home , after the judge ruled that his motivation was entirely compassionate

A 47-year-old Waterford man has been spared jail and given a suspended three-year sentence after pleading guilty to the attempted murder of his elderly mother in a nursing home , after the judge ruled that his motivation was entirely compassionate.

Mr Justice Paul Carney said that in Mr Gerald Vollrath’s case, he could be facing life imprisonment were it not for the prosecution’s inability to prove that Mrs Veronica Vollrath was still alive when he pressed a pillow to her face.

He noted that the DPP had accepted his plea to attempted murder and said the available penalties ranged from a suspended sentence to life imprisonment.

Veronica (Vera) Vollrath (83) was pronounced dead on January 9th, 2012 at Killure Bridge Nursing Home, Killure, Co Waterford.

Her death was expected but her son admitted holding a pillow over her face while keeping vigil by her death bed, and the Austrian resident was charged with her murder.

Gerald Vollrath, an aviation worker, of Tramore Heights, Tramore pleaded not guilty to her murder, but the murder charge against him was dropped in December, and he pleaded guilty to attempted murder instead.

The Central Criminal Court was told last week that this was because pathological exams had found no sign of suffocation and that it could not be said with absolute certainty that she was not already dead.

Mrs Vollrath had suffered a severe stroke, had Alzheimer’s, diabetes, heart and kidney problems and was receiving end-of-life care.

He was keeping vigil by her side on the night of January 8th when he put a pillow over her face and held it there for up to two minutes. Staff did not suspect anything other than a natural death.

Mr Vollrath revealed what he had done later that morning. He told Gardaí that his mother previously indicated that she would not like to be helpless in the situation in which she was.

The court heard that the Gardaí’s view was that Mr Vollrath’s only concern was his mother’s suffering.

Mr Justice Paul Carney said last week that this was the first time he had encountered anything of this nature in 50 years and adjourned sentencing.

Before passing sentence today, he described the case as distressing.

He said that mercy killing was a concept totally unknown to our law. He then quoted from an English case, where a mother had taken the life of her severely disabled son with the intention of ending his suffering.

“The law of murder does not distinguish between murder committed for malevolent reasons and murder motivated by familial love… Mercy killing is murder,” he said, quoting a judicial decision in that case.

“Even a life lived at the extremes of disability is not one jot less precious than the life of an able-bodied person,” it continued.

“Until parliament decides otherwise, the law recognises a distinction between the withdrawal of treatment supporting life, which, subject to stringent conditions, may be lawful, and the active termination of life, which is unlawful,” concluded the quotation.

Mr Justice Carney noted that the mother in that case had been captured by the mandatory life sentence.

In relation to sentencing Mr Vollrat,h the judge said he took a number of mitigating factors into account when deciding on a sentence.

“The motivation was entirely compassionate and not at all malevolent,” he said.

He also noted Mrs Vollrath’s family’s desire for compassion, Mr Vollrath’s early plea and genuine remorse, his work history, employer support, lack of previous convictions and the support of his wife and family.

He imposed a three-year sentence, but suspended it on Mr Vollrath entering into a € 1,000 bond to be of good behaviour for three years.

Mr Vollrath, who had his eyes closed throughout the sentencing, winked at family members on hearing the outcome.

Outside the courtroom, he embraced family members as well as members of the gardaí.

Flanked by his family, he paused outside the courthouse while his solicitor, Ken Cunningham, spoke on his behalf.

He thanked all of those who had offered their support and encouragement over the past two ‘very difficult’ years. He thanked his legal team for their expertise, dedication, and commitment to bringing the matter to a conclusion.

He thanked his family for the unwavering support, sympathy, compassion and love they had shown him through ‘this very difficult time for all concerned’.

He asked the media to respect the privacy of his family and to allow them to rebuild their lives.

Mortgage lending in Ireland 5.6% down last year on 2012 

 

Value and volume of mortgages issued falls but estimates suggest that less than one in two purchases is now made with a mortgage

Figures show that the average loan size increased to € 172,118 in the fourth quarter of 2013, up 4.1% on Q4 2012. The average mortgage drawn down for property purchase increased on a year-on-year basis for the first time since Q2 2008, reaching € 179,934

Despite an ongoing resurgence in the property market, mortgage lending fell in 2013, as the number of mortgages issued fell by 5.6% down to 14,985 and the value of mortgages dropped by a similar percentage, down to €2.5 billion.

The decline was evident in the fourth quarter of last year, with the IBF/Pwc Mortgage Market profile pointing to a decline of 13.9% in the number of mortgages given out, and a 10.3% decline in value, when compared with the same quarter in 2012.

Dermot O’Leary, economist with Goodbody Stockbrokers, described the outturn as “underwhelming”, adding that it can be partly explained by the low level of supply of properties and the presence of cash transactions.

“On the latter issue, we estimate that only 46% of transactions were carried out using a mortgage last year, down from 56% in 2012,” he said.

The figures may also be distorted by the effect of people rushing to buy at the end of 2012 in order to take advantage of mortgage interest relief before it was abolished.

First time buyers and mover purchasers, continued to dominate the market in 2013, accounting for almost 90% (87.8%) of new mortgages issued. In effect, over 90% (93%) of all mortgage credit now goes to the home purchasing segments of the market.

The average loan size increased to € 172,118 in the fourth quarter of 2013, up 4.1% on Q4 2012. The average mortgage drawn down for property purchase increased on a year-on-year basis for the first time since Q2 2008, reaching € 179,934.

Goodbody is forecasting growth in the value of mortgages drawn down of 29% to € 3.3 billion this year, with a further expansion to € 4.2 billion in 2015.

Cyber-bullying of Irish children and teens up 33% on 2013

 

The cyber-bullying of children and teenagers is on the increase with 33% more students reporting cyber-bullying this year 2014 compared with 2013.

Results show that only one in four parents monitor their children’s internet activity.

Thousands of parents and children were interviewed as part of the annual survey, carried out by the National Association of Principals and Deputy Principals (NAPD)

The survey revealed that bullying is not just within the grounds of the school yard, with an 80% increase from last year in students admitting to having been bullied by a peer online.

The aim of the survey is to highlight the presence of cyberbullying among Irish young people and to help schools and parents to tackle the problem.

The results show that younger parents tend to be more aware of the dangers of online bullying with 64% of parents under the age of 35 saying they monitor their child’s online activity on a weekly basis.

This figure was much smaller among older parents with only 40pc of parents over the age of 45 making the same inquires with their kids.

RESULTS

Fifteen % of parents admitted to never checking up on their children as they use the web. Director of NAPD Clive Byrne said the results show that much more needs to be done to tackle online bullying, stressing the difference between “what parents are aware of and what is actually happening,” in the lives of Irish children.

She urged parents to remember that cyberbullying can follow their children home “through the medium of their phones or on the web”.

She added that parents who don’t monitor their children’s online activity “will be less likely to detect online bullying when it occurs”.

Large volcanoes helped slow global warming

LIVERMORE SCIENTISTS CONCLUDE

  

Large volcanoes erupting earlier this century have helped cool the planet, partially offsetting warming produced by greenhouse gases, according to a study led by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

In a paper published in the Feb. 23 edition of the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers say that despite increasing greenhouse gas emissions, global mean temperatures on the Earth’s surface and those in the troposphere — the lowest portion of Earth’s atmosphere — have shown relatively little warming since 1998.

According to the study, scientists looking for a cause have found “significant correlations” between tiny droplets of sulfuric acid released during larger volcanic eruptions — also known as “volcanic aerosols” — and satellite estimates of lower tropospheric temperatures. The study concludes volcanic eruptions have contributed to a “warming hiatus”; the aerosols reflecting sunlight back to space, cooling Earth temperatures.

“In the last decade, the amount of volcanic aerosol in the stratosphere has increased, so more sunlight is being reflected back into space,” said Lawrence Livermore climate scientist Benjamin Santer, the study’s lead author. “This has created a natural cooling of the planet and has partly offset the increase in surface and atmospheric temperatures due to human influence.”

The study indicates other possible factors for the slowdown, including the temporary cooling effect of internal climate noise, an unusually low and long solar cycle, and an increase in sulfur dioxide emissions from China.

Livermore scientists Céline Bonfils, Jeff Painter, Mark Zelinka and Karl Taylor contributed to the study. Other contributors include Remote Sensing Systems, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis.