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Showing posts with label macular degeneration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label macular degeneration. Show all posts

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Donie's Ireland daily news BLOG update

Irish Government plans for one-tier health service unveiled today

 

The white paper on universal health insurance proposes access based on the needs of our people.

The Government has unveiled plans to create a one-tier health system, supported by universal health insurance, with access based on need rather than ability to pay.
The plans are contained in a white paper on universal health insurance which was launched today by Taoiseach Enda Kenny and senior ministers.
Mr Kenny and Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore described the document as a “once in a generation opportunity” to build a health service that was currently not fit for purpose. Minister for Health James Reilly claimed the plans will amount to the biggest reform of the health system in the history of the State.
Under the proposals, universal health insurance would be compulsory for everyone, with the State paying or subsidising the cost of premiums for most people. The white paper outlines the key elements of the new system and how it will work. It also examines the future basket of services to be included in the new system, as well as funding mechanisms.
Dr Reilly said the existing two-tier system was not working. “It’s unfair, unaffordable and inefficient. Without change, taxes will need to go up or services will have to be cut.”
The Government was determined that State spending on healthcare under UHI would not exceed existing spending, he emphasised. Specific measures would be introduced to control costs including, if necessary, capping of the profits and claims expenditure of insurers.
The public is being invited to make submission to theDepartment of Health on the proposals before the end of May, and Dr Reilly plans to speak at a series of regional meetings as part of the consultation process.
Under UHI, everyone will have equal access to a standard package of services. Health insurers will not be allowed to sell products that provide faster access to these services.
Dr Reilly said that if patients wanted “cordon blue cooking or five-star accommodation” while in hospital they would have to pay for it themselves.
UHI is not due to be finalised until 2019, so final implementation will be a matter for the next government.

Ireland’s Unemployment rate falls to 11.8% for March this year

 

Long-term unemployment still very acute with 45.8% signing on for more than a year. 

There was a 1,400 drop in the number of men claiming benefits in the State in March, while the number of women claimants fell by 300.
The unemployment rate fell to 11.8% for March this year, the lowest level in almost five years.
Figures from the Central Statistics Office show the number of people signing on the Live Register fell by 1,800 last month, marking the 21st month of successive decline in the unemployment rate.
Long-term unemployment remains a significant problem however, with 179,335 people, or 45.8 per cent of all claimants in March, signing on for 12 months or more.
The total number of people on the register, which includes casual and part-time workers as well as those on Jobseekers Allowance, is down 8 per cent or 33,900 since the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number stood at 396,900 for March. This represents an unemployment rate of 11.8 per cent, down from 11.9 per cent in February.
The fall was most marked among males, with a drop of 1,400 recorded in the number of men on the register in the month, compared to 300 women.
The number of male claimants decreased by 25,807, or 9.6 per cent, to 243, 189 in the 12 months to the end of March, while female claimants fell by 8,049, or 5.2 per cent, to 148, 043 in the period.
There was a significant difference between the declines in short-term and long-term claimants, with the number of people signing on for 12 months or more falling by just 4.6 per cent in the last year, compared to a drop of 10.6 per cent for short-term claimants.
The CSO release also includes figures on the number of people enrolled in labour activation programmes, primarily the long-term unemployed, who are not included in the Live Register figures. There were 85,119 people taking part in February, up 2 per cent or 1,698 on the same month last year.
Commenting on the figures, Investec chief economist Philip O’Sullivan said that while the improvement in the headline Live Register figures was welcome, the problem of long-term unemployment remains “acute”.
“Tackling this issue remains a major priority for policymakers,” he said.
“While the Irish standardised unemployment rate is now inside the Eurozone (whose unemployment rate was 11.9 per cent in February) for the first time since late 2008, that is not much by way of consolation for those awaiting a return to work.”
Mr O’Sullivan added that there are “tell-tale signs that emigration remains a factor” in the declining numbers signing on, with the number of claimants under the age of 25 falling by 11.5 per cent in the year to the end of March, compared to a fall of 7.3 per cent in those aged over 25 in the same period.
Also commenting on the long-term unemployment figures, Isme chief executive Mark Fielding said the Government’s focus should remain on reducing business costs and increasing competitiveness if jobs were to be created.
“The drive for jobs must not be sabotaged by the demands for wage increases, which will simply stall any fragile recovery as the cost of labour is by far the most significant driver of business costs for most enterprises – particularly for micro and small businesses,” he said.
“Despite recent cost improvements, due to the recession,Ireland remains a high cost location for a range of key business inputs and pressure is mounting on a number of costs including wages, property, utilities, transport and credit.”
Davy analyst Conall Mac Coille said today’s figures should “provide reassurance that the recovery in the Irish economy continues, addressing any lingering concerns following the news that Irish GDP contracted by 0.3 per cent in 2013”.
“Jobs growth appears to have been sustained in 2014, consistent with business sentiment surveys that suggest companies expect to expand their employment,” he added.

The Rehab group refuses to reveal CEO Exuctive 'Angela Kerins' retirement package

 

The Rehab group has refused to release the details of chief executive Angela Kerins’ retirement package after her shock resignation decision today.

Angela Kerins has been under massive pressure in recent months over her lavish €240,000 salary and has faced questions about the profitability of the disabilities charity’s scratch cards.
Charity officials are due to make another appearance before the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) next week.
This morning, Children Minister Frances Fitzgerald and committee member Deputy Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein, called on M/s Kerins to attend that meeting despite her retirement.
DEDICATED
Announcing her decision to retire four years early, the 56-year-old told staff at the charity: “In recent months, I have become increasingly concerned about the toll that public controversy has taken on the Rehab Group and my own family.
“While I have dedicated my energies and ability to growing and developing the Rehab Group for the last 22 years I am of the view that it is in the best interests of all concerned that I step down at this time.
“In doing so I hope the organisation can focus its entire energies on its core activity of developing and delivering services to people with disabilities and others who are disadvantaged.”
In a statement Rehab Group chairman Brian Kerr thanked M/s Kerins for her “dedication and resolve” over the last seven years and wished her “every success in the future”.
The charity said a management transition process is being put in place “to ensure that the important work of the Rehab Group continues as usual”.
A spokesman this morning refused to reveal details of M/s Kerins’ retirement package including annual pension payments or any lump sum she may be entitled to.
He said the terms of her retirement package “are in line with what her existing contract arrangements are”.
“That’s obviously confidential and something we can’t divulge without the express permission of M/s Kerins,” he said.
M/s Kerins revealed her €240,000 salary at a previous PAC meeting in February after refusing to confirm the sum for weeks beforehand.
She said that her pay was funded by Rehab’s commercial operations but faced questioning over the €80m in public money that the charity receives.
TDs were highly critical of her performance at the PAC, with its chairman John McGuinness accusing her of giving incomplete evidence.
Rehab later provided more information about staff pay, revealing 12 senior members of the management team at Rehab Group earn more than €100,000-a-year.
M/s Kerins was to appear again on April 10, along with another former chief executive Frank Flannery.
Speaking on RTE’s Morning Edition, Minister Fitzgerald said “It would be in the interests of Rehab and the interest of the charity sector for her to appear before the public accounts committee.”
She said Mr Flannery should also attend saying: “There have been questions that PAC have put that they want the people who’ve been in charge to answer.”
Mr Flannery faced criticism for not appearing at the PAC with M/s Kerins in February.
His presence had been requested by the committee, which had questions about his pension and other matters, including a coffin importation business.
Mary Lou McDonald said: “Resignation or no resignation Angela Kerins needs to fully cooperate with the Public Accounts Committee inquiry and needs to answer the questions.”

Sligo County Council faces a multi-million bill over Lissadell case?

 €7million ?  Sligo County Council elected representatives. Photo: SligoToday.ie

The Walsh family, Constance (16), Elanor (20), Eddie (10), Harry (19) and Kate (19) the children of Constance Cassidy and Edward Walsh after the verdict last year

Sligo County Council are facing a bill of several million Euro’s after the Supreme Court today ordered them to pay most of the costs (some 75%) of the long and bitter legal row over public rights of way across the historic Lissadell estate in Co Sligo.

The full costs of the case, initiated in 2009,  are estimated at least €7m and the five judge court today ordered the Council to pay three quarters of the legal costs incurred by the Lissadell owners, barristers Edward Walsh and Constance Cassidy, in the High and Supreme Courts. The Council must also pay its own legal costs bill.
  In making the costs order, the Chief Justice, Ms Justice Susan Denham, noted the owners had sought declarations that there were no public rights of way over four routes in the estate.
The Supreme Court had last November ruled there were no public rights of way over three of those routes and found there was a right of way over part of the fourth route, a coastal route to the beach at Lissadell.
The owners had asked the court to order the Council to pay all of the costs while the Council argued “justice” would be met by an order direccing both sides to pay their own costs. Lawyers for both sides also insisted their clients had made efforts to settle the dispute and each blamed the other over failure to do so.
The court today gave its reserved decision on costs and other issues raised by both sides arising from the court’s judgment allowing the owners’ appeal against the High Court finding of public rights of way across all four routes at Lissadell.
Following that judgment, the Council raised issues concerning particular findings of the court and effectively sought a review of those. The court refused that application in its ruling today.
The Chief Justice also noted the owners had withdrawn their application to remit for hearing by the High Court their claim for damages arising from alleged slander by the Council if their title to Lissadell.
During the costs applications last month, the Council had claimed the owners were determined to proceed with litigation despite its offer to settle the case on the basis of acceptance of a public right of way to the beach at Lissadell. The owners countered that the Council had, both in the High and Supreme Courts, maintained its claim all routes of way through the estate were public.
The owners said they initiated their case in January 2009 in response to the Council passing a resolution in December 2008 aimed at protecting public rights of way at Lissadell. Before that resolution, the Council wrote to the owners warning litigation was inevitable if they persisted in closing off routes at Lissadell.
The Council argued the owners were told that resolution had no legal effect and it also submitted it, as a public body, has a duty to protect public rights of way.

Potential remedy emerges for most common cause of blindness

 

‘We probably have skipped over years of drug development. This is very exciting news’

Treatment is for age related macular degeneration, a disease that makes blood vessels beneath the retina grow abnormally.
Patients affected by the most common cause of blindness in Ireland may enjoy a brighter future after an important discovery by scientists in Dublin.
They have identified a potential treatment to slow or halt vision loss that relies on a drug that has already been used safely in human trials.
“We probably have skipped over years of drug development. It is very exciting that the translation of this basic research will move very quickly now,” said Matthew Campbell, professor of genetics at Trinity College Dublin.
It is a treatment for age related macular degeneration, a disease that makes blood vessels beneath the retina grow abnormally. This causes the loss of central vision, used for example for reading, driving or looking at a computer screen.
In 2012 Prof Campbell and colleagues discovered that a component of the immune system, known as Il-18, could protect sight by retarding growth of damaging blood vessels.
Coincidentally, he heard that drug company Glaxo Smith Kline was running human trials on Il-18 for the treatment of cancer. “We asked could we use some of their Il-18 in our labs to test whether it was toxic for the eye. And we wanted to see if it could prevent onset of [vision loss]. He joined with lead author Prof Sarah Doyle, an assistant professor in immunology at Trinity, and other colleagues to test Il-18.
They published their findings yesterday in the journal Science Translational Medicine .

POTENT TREATMENT

There were early concerns that Il-18 would harm the retina, said Prof Doyle
“But surprisingly we found that low doses had no adverse effects on the retina and yet still suppressed abnormal blood vessel growth,” she said.
“We found it was very potent in preventing blood vessel development,” said Prof Campbell said. “The next goal is to show this can work in humans.”
It could replace the current best treatment which involves direct injections into the eyeball costing €1,000 per injection, he said.
The drug is being trialled and has not yet received approval. “It is still tiny steps,” said Prof Campbell. But if it is proven to work the treatment could reach the market relatively quickly.

Scientists Solve the Mystery of the Zebra B & W Stripes

  

Ever wonder why zebras look so darn fashionable with those white and black stripes?

No, they’re not making a statement about prison uniforms. Their chic yet customary outfit is actually used to help ward off insects, including horseflies and tsetse flies.

As previous studies have shown that such flies tend to avoid black-and-white striped surfaces, many hypothesized that the same holds true for these guys.
A recent study conducted by researchers from the University of California led an investigation into the purpose of these zebra markings. The team found that many striped animals were found in common areas that are heavily populated by large numbers of tabanids, otherwise known as horse flies.
Lead study author and biologist of the university Tim Caro notes that these markings help prevent fly bites, which could cause blood loss and even spread disease.
“Biting flies are attracted to hosts by odor, temperature, vision and movement that may act at different stages during host seeking, but vision is thought to be important in the landing response,” researchers said, via a press release.
Caro and his team studied patterns and locations of seven species and 20 subspecies of equines. They also mapped the native locations of these animals and plotted them against areas populated by large numbers of horse flies.
“Conversely, there is no consistent support for camouflage, predator avoidance, heat management or social interaction hypotheses,” researchers note.
Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallance were the first to study the issue back in 1870 over the role stripes played in the animal’s evolution.  

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Donie's news Ireland daily BLOG Wednesday

Mater hospital to comply with new Irish legislation

 

Hospital says it has carefully considered the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act

Fr Kevin Doran, who sits on the Mater’s board of directors and the board of governors, would not comment on the hospital’s decision.
 The Mater Hospital in Dublin has said it will comply with the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act 2013.
In a brief statement issued yesterday the hospital said it would comply with the Act, which sets out the circumstances where a termination of pregnancy may be performed.
The statement says: “The Mater Hospital has carefully considered the Act. The Hospital’s priority is to be at the frontier of compassion, concern and clinical care for all our patients. Having regard to that duty, the Hospital will comply with the law as provided for in the act.”
The hospital’s compliance with the legislation came into question during the summer when a member of its board of directors said it could “not comply” with the legislation as it ran counter to its Catholic ethos. Fr Kevin Doran, who sits on both the board of directors and the board of governors would not comment this afternoon on the hospital’s decision or his future involvement in it.
The Mater Misericordiae University Hospital is a Catholic voluntary hospital and was founded by the Sisters of Mercy in 1861. In its mission statement, the hospital says that by caring for the sick, “we participate in the healing ministry of Jesus Christ”.
Though it is named in the Act as one of 25 “appropriate institutions” for the termination of pregnancy, Fr Doran said during the summer: “The Mater can’t carry out abortions because it goes against its ethos. I would be very concerned that the Minister [for Health, James Reilly] seesfit to make it impossible for hospitals to have their own ethos.
“The issue is broader than just abortion. What’s happening is the Minister is saying hospitals are not entitled to have an ethos.”
A spokesman said the hospital’s board and management had consulted “widely across the hospital” since the enactment of the legislation in July. The issue had also been discussed at board level.
When asked yesterday about the hospital’s decision, Fr Doran said: “I’m not going to comment on anything. This has just happened.”
Asked if he was going to remain on as a member of the hospital’s boards of governors and directors, again said: “I am not going to comment on anything.”
He had said in August that if the hospital were to decide to comply with the legislation he assumed there “would be very serious discussion between the Archbishop [of Dublin Dr Diarmuid Martin] and the management of the hospital.”
The Mater hospital is a single-member company.
Its parent company is the Mater Misericordiae and the Children’s University Hospitals (Temple St) Ltd.
Its website says the majority of the members of the parent company are Sisters of Mercy and the remaining members represent the Catholic Archdiocese of Dublin, the Catholic Nurses’ Guild of Ireland, the Society of St Vincent de Paul and the medical consultants of Mater Misericordiae University Hospital and the Children’s University Hospital.

Irish planning permissions up 37% in second quarter of 2013

  

PLANNING PERMISSIONS FOR APARTMENTS JUMP 79% IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2013


New Central Statistics Office figures show that planning permissions were granted for 1,926 dwelling units in the second quarter of 2013, up 37% on the same time last year.The CSO noted the 37% increase was off a low base in 2012.Planning permissions were given for 1,496 houses in the three months from April to June, up 28.3% on the 1,166 the same time last year.
The number of planning permissions for apartment units soared by 79% to 430 apartment units from 240 units in the second quarter of 2012.
Today’s figures show that one-off houses accounted for 35.5% of all new dwelling units granted planning permission in the three month period.

Twitter to create 100 new jobs at its new Dublin office by end of 2014

   

Microblogging website Twitter is to double the number of employees at its Dublin office to 200 by the end of next year.

The announcement was made as the company marked the second anniversary of the opening of its European headquarters in Dublin.
The company currently employs 100 staff at its new Pearse Street offices.
Managing Director Stephen McIntyre said the company had a positive experience in finding specialised and experienced staff to fill vacancies, as had other social media companies with a presence in Ireland.
The new jobs will be in a variety of business areas, including sales, legal, HR, finance, marketing, engineering and user services.
Recruitment for the first 30 of the new positions has already begun.
Twitter has more than 200 million active users around the world, with more than 500 million tweets sent daily.

The Twitter service is available in more than 30 languages, with 70% of its users based outside the US.

Earlier this month, the company announced it is to sell its shares on the stock market.
The announcement has been welcomed by the IDA.
Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation Richard Bruton also welcomed the news.
He said: “ICT is a key sector targeted in the Government’s Action Plan for Jobs, and in recent years we have seen significant jobs growth in the area as world-leading internet companies decide to establish and expand operations in Ireland.
“Twitter is one of the biggest names on the internet and one of the fastest-growing companies in the world.
“Twitter’s decision in 2011 to establish its European HQ in Dublin was a major coup for Ireland and further confirmation of our status as the internet capital of Europe.”

Many cases of blindness can be prevented through early diagnosis and treatment

  

People over the age of 50 are being warned to watch out for symptoms of AMD (age-related macular degeneration) Ireland’s leading cause of registered blindness.

The call was made to coincide with AMD awareness week, which runs until September 29.
AMD (age-related macular degeneration) affects central vision, making it blurry. Central vision is necessary for everyday activities such as reading, driving and watching television. The condition affects one in 10 people over the age of 50.
However, the majority of cases of blindness associated with AMD can be prevented through early diagnosis and treatment.
“As the leading cause of blindness among people over the age of 50, it is likely that AMD will continue to affect vision loss in this older age group. However it is reassuring to note that 75% of blindness is preventable through early diagnosis and treatment.
“In the case of AMD, prevention is aided by maintaining a healthy lifestyle with a balanced diet and blood pressure control, quitting smoking and by having regular eye tests,” explained Patricia Quinlan, an eye doctor and member of the Irish College of Ophthalmologists (ICO).
A framework report recently launched by the National Coalition for Vision Health in Ireland revealed that 224,000 people in Ireland are affected by severe vision loss. However, this figure is expected to jump by 21% – to 272,000 – by 2020 as a result of this country’s ageing population and changing lifestyle factors.
According to Lynda McGivney-Nolan, an optometric advisor with the Association of Optometrists Ireland (AOI), it is important that people over the age of 50 undergo regular eye tests.
“In fact it is advised that you should undergo a test at least every two years. We encourage this age bracket to stay vigilant for the early signs of AMD,” she commented.
Early signs include a sudden onset of vision distortion and blurring in the centre of a person’s vision. The test for AMD is simple, quick and non-invasive – it can take place as part of a routine eye exam at any optician.
“Because eyesight can start to deteriorate gradually in old age, too many older people put up with it, seeing the deterioration as just part of the ageing process. In so many instances that is not the case,” warned Des Kenny of the National Council for the Blind of Ireland (NCBI).
He added that to lose your sight unnecessarily because of failing to visit an optician ‘is one of the saddest mistakes a person can make’.
“This is all the worse when eyesight can be saved through prompt diagnosis and treatment,” he added.
AMD Awareness Week is supported by the NCBI, the ICO, the AOI and the charity, Fighting Blindness. As part of the event, free AMD testing will be available at a number of venues nationwide. For more information, click here
For more information on eye health, see our Eye Clinic here

Global warming and “What the leading scientist’s say”

  

The UN panel looking at the impact of human activity on the planet is about to release its latest report. Representing the peer-reviewed work of hundreds of leading climate scientists, it offers no cause for scepticism or complacency

A lot has changed since the world’s leading climate scientists last gathered in the name of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, to put the finishing touches to their fourth landmark assessment of the state of global warming.
Since the release of that report in Geneva, the world has been through a prolonged and continuing economic downturn. This was arguably good for the environment in the short term, because the resulting slump in manufacturing had the effect of curbing the growth in damaging carbon emissions.
But in the longer term, the recession has been profoundly damaging, because it has knocked green issues firmly off the political agenda. While renewable technologies such as wind and solar power can benefit from free sources of energy, the initial investment is huge and the rewards will not be felt until much further down the line.
The cause of reducing emissions was dealt a further significant blow at the annual UN climate change conference in Copenhagen in December 2009, when the world’s governments failed to agree on legally-binding targets to reduce their CO2 emissions.
This failure to forge a treaty to replace the 1997 Kyoto protocol, which was rejected by the US and which placed no obligations on big developing countries such as China, was hugely disappointing to many and took much of the wind out of the sails of the campaign to reduce emissions.
Climate sceptics have effectively exploited the opportunities provided by the recession and the disappointing Copenhagen summit to push their case, arguing that the last thing people need is expensive and unnecessary renewable energy pushing up their utility bills.
According to a recent survey from the UK Energy Research Centre, they have been effective. The proportion of people living in Britain who do not believe in climate change has more than quadrupled since 2005 – from 4 per cent to 19 per cent.
But the prospect of the world’s leading governments agreeing dramatic and co-ordinated action to tackle climate change has brightened considerably in recent months.
China and the US, the world’s biggest emitters of CO2 by far, have lately made a series of positive noises about the prospect of cutting their carbon footprint and have even agreed to team up to tackle the matter.
It is against this backdrop that the fifth IPCC assessment will be published in Stockholm tomorrow. With its synthesis of thousands of peer-reviewed papers put together by hundreds of leading scientists, it will be the most authoritative document ever produced about climate change.
It will therefore play a central role at the next significant UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015. This is when governments have agreed to try and negotiate legally-binding emissions reductions targets that, they hope, will be sufficient to keep global warming to 2C – the level beyond which the consequences become increasingly devastating.
1. Atmospheric observations 
  The report will say there is a 95 per cent chance – which it defines as “extremely likely” – that humans are responsible for the majority of climate change through their greenhouse gas emissions. This compares with the 90 per cent figure given by the previous IPCC assessment in 2006. This, in turn, was a significant increase on the 66 per cent certainty reached in the 2001 assessment and just over 50 per cent in 1995.
The report will say that the “global combined land and ocean temperature data” show an increase of about 0.8C between 1901 and 2010 and of about 0.5C between 1979 and 2010.
It is also expected to slightly reduce the minimum temperature increase that is “likely” (defined as a greater than 66 per cent chance) to result from climate change in the long term, to 1.5C, compared with 2C in 2006. The upper end of the “likely” temperature increase remains at 4.5C.
The report is also like to reference the fact that, in May, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere breached the symbolic level of 400 parts per million for the first time in five million years, after rising at its fastest rate since records began.
The elevated carbon emissions reading harks back to the Pliocene period, of three to five million years ago, when global average temperatures were 3C or 4C hotter than today; the Arctic was ice-free, sea levels were about 40m higher than today, and jungles covered northern Canada.
2. Ocean observations 
 The report will say “it is virtually certain that the upper ocean has warmed since 1971 and that ocean warming dominates the change in the global energy content”. This is because warming of the ocean accounts for more than 90 per cent of the extra energy stored by the Earth between 1971 and 2010, it will say.
The largest warming is found near the sea surface, with the top 75 metres recording a 0.1C increased per decade, between 1971 and 2010, decreasing to about 0.015C per decade by 700 metres. In terms of sea levels, the report will find it to be “virtually certain” that over the 20th century the mean rate of increase was 1.4-2mm a year, rising to 2.7-3.7mm a year from 1993.
It will also forecast that, by the end of the century, sea levels could rise by up to 81cm – largely as a result of an expansion in the volume of the oceans as they warm, and from the melting of glaciers.
It will say it is “virtually certain” that the oceans have absorbed huge amounts of carbon dioxide that have resulted in the gradual acidification of seawater. Estimates of the global oceanic content of anthropogenic (human-sourced) carbon range from 93bn to 137bn tonnes in 1994 to 125bn-185bn in 2010.
3. Cryosphere 
  This term collectively describes those parts of the Earth’s surface where water is in solid form, including sea, lake and river ice, snow cover, glaciers and frozen ground, or permafrost.
There’s not much good news here. The overarching conclusion of the draft report is: “More comprehensive and improved observations strengthen the evidence that the ice sheets are losing mass, glaciers are shrinking globally, sea ice cover is reducing in the Arctic, and snow cover is decreasing and permafrost is thawing in the Northern Hemisphere.”
It notes that global glacier mass has declined by between 210bn and 371bn tonnes since 2003. It also finds that the Greenland ice sheet is diminishing at an accelerating rate – the average annual ice loss from Greenland was between 101bn tonnes and 145bn tonnes between 1993 and 2010, rising to 174bn to 282bn tonnes a year in the period 2005-2010.
The report will also show that the Antarctic ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate, and that the overall decrease in Arctic sea ice between 1979 and 2011 has been about 3.9 per cent per decade.
The state of the cryosphere is seen as a barometer for the extent and fallout from climate change because it is so clearly (though not exclusively) influenced by global temperatures. Its demise also has the added effect of speeding up climate change because snow and ice curb warming by reflecting the sunlight back into space.
4. Carbon allowance 
  The report is likely to say that the world has already burned more than half the maximum amount of fossil fuel that can be consumed if catastrophic levels of global warming are to be avoided. Scientists estimate that if global warming is to have an above-average chance of remaining below the crucial 2C level, the total amount of carbon burnt since the industrial revolution must not exceed one trillion tonnes.
This is because CO2 can remain in the atmosphere for more than 200 years, giving the greenhouse gas a cumulative impact. Scientists calculate that about 570bn tonnes, or 57 per cent of that one trillion tonnes maximum, has been burnt in the past three centuries and these, or similar, figures are expected to be included in the final report.
The report is also expected to warn that we are on course to use up our entire remaining global carbon allowance of 330bn tonnes within 30 years, unless drastic action to curb emissions is taken. This is because rapid economic growth in developing countries is accelerating the increase in carbon emissions.
Experts have blamed much of the increase on rising emissions from China and India, which still rely heavily on coal for their energy, although it is not known whether the latest IPCC assessment will single them out. Reduced absorption by shrinking forests is another factor.
About 50bn tonnes of CO2 is emitted globally each year, with the average global citizen producing seven tonnes, compared with about ten tonnes per person in the UK. Scientists estimate global emissions need to come down to about 20bn tonnes a year if the world is to have a fair chance of limiting global warming to 2C.
5.The warming hiatus
   The most contentious part of the report will probably be how it deals with the “hiatus” in warming, with signs that the rate of increase in global temperatures has slowed dramatically. In a development that climate sceptics have seized upon as evidence that the threat of climate change is greatly exaggerated, the temperature rise has slowed from 0.12C per decade since 1951, to 0.05C per decade in the past 15 years. It is understood that some governments are pressing the report authors to be clearer about the reasons behind the slowdown in the report, in a bid to head off the climate change sceptics.
While the precise wording and prominence of the “hiatus” section are still being hammered out, the gist of it is that it is unlikely to last. It will say factors such as a haze of volcanic ash and a cyclical dip in the energy emitted from the sun are likely to have contributed to a slower warming trend since 1998. It will also point out that the decade to 2012 was the warmest since records began in the mid-19th century.
The IPCC forecasts a resumption of the higher level of warming that it will say is likely to cause ever more heatwaves, droughts, floods and rising sea levels. “Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common” in both historical records and computer models, the report will say. “Barring a major volcanic eruption, most 15-year global mean surface temperature trends in the near-term future will be larger than during 1998-2012.”
Heated debate: Publishing an IPCC report
The publication of any Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is always preceded by several days of intense debate, as hundreds of scientists descend on the launch city – in this case Stockholm – to agree the final wording of the first instalment of a three-part report that is likely to weigh in at more than 3,000 pages in total, released over the next 14 months.
One rather prominent member of the proceedings in particular, the IPCC’s vice-chair, Francis Zwiers, could put a few noses out of joint.
While most climate scientists are likely to be wrangling over just how bad climate change is – and why it seems to have slowed down recently – Mr Zwiers, the director of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium at the University of Victoria in Canada, is likely to be focusing more on the inadequacy of established climate models, for failing to predict the warming “hiatus”.
Published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the study he recently co-authored was scathing about these models. It found they have “significantly” overestimated warming over the past 20 years – and by even more over the past 15 years, the period which coincides with the warming hiatus.
IPCC vice-chair Francis Zwiers: climate models failed to predict ‘hiatus’
“Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability,” the study found.
However, Lord Stern, the author of the influential Stern Review into the financial implications of climate change, said that climate-change models significantly underestimated the extent of global warming.
Mr Zwiers’s stance on the effectiveness of climate models will feed into the reasons for the slowdown in climate change in the past 15 years.
IPCC panellist Shang-Ping Xie, a professor of climate science at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, said: “It’s contentious. The stakes have been raised by various people, especially the sceptics.”