Donie's Ireland daily news BLOG

The rating agency Fitch upgrades Ireland credit prospects from A- to A

MOVE FOLLOWS A POSITIVE REASSESSMENT OF THE PROSPECTS FOR STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH

  

INVESTORS USE RATINGS AGENCY STANDINGS TO GUIDE DECISIONS ON WHERE TO PUT THEIR MONEY.

Ratings agency Fitch has given the Coalition parties a pre-election boost, upgrading its rating on Ireland’s national debt.

The agency said late on Friday it was changing Ireland’s rating from A- to A, with a stable outlook.

The move follows a positive reassessment by Fitch of the prospects for strong economic growth in Ireland and steady improvements in the public finances. At the end of a week in which the unemployment rate fell to 8.6%, the agency also cited a strong projection for further employment growth.

Investors use ratings agency standings to guide decisions on where to put their money, so an upgrade in Ireland’s rating should help to hold down the cost of raising new debt.

Although the assessments of Fitch and its rivals are crucial, Ireland’s borrowing costs have also been compressed by the European Central Bank’s bond-buying campaign.

Irish’s 10-year bond yields are trading at a low level, and the 2026 bond had an interest rate of just under 1 per cent on Friday, having traded around 0.85 per cent during the week.

However, some nervousness ahead of the general election has led to a small increase in the gap between Irish bonds and those of other EU countries such as France and Belgium over the past week or so. The NTMA is due to raise new funds next week, so the Fitch move will be welcome.

Fitch, in a statement, referred to the strong macroeconomic performance and an improving budget picture. It particularly noted the move to a so-called primary budget surplus – a measure of the national borrowing position before repayments on the national debt are included.

Fitch is forecasting a 4% rise in GDP this year and believes Ireland’s debt to GDP ratio is now on a firmly downward path.

The agency has been very positive in previous assessments of the Coalition’s performance, saying after the October budget that some fiscal easing ahead of the election was not a surprise.

Fitch said then the overall budget package was consistent with improving public finances, although it said the stimulus was “pro-cyclical and therefore likely to increase economic volatility”.

At the same time, it said this year’s budget did not change its expectation of further deficit narrowing.

“The sovereign’s fiscal credibility has been underlined by its meeting of the original excessive deficit procedure deadline set nearly five years ago, after reducing the headline deficit by nearly 10 [percentage points]\.”

The upgrade from Fitch came as US bond investor Michael Hasenstab of the Franklin Templeton fund, who bought 10 per cent of the Irish bond market after the State was bailed out, said he had exited his Irish position.

He added, however, that the bonds should continue to perform well. Mr Hasenstab said the recent underperformance of Irish bonds was “short-term noise”, praised the State’s “strong” economy and dismissed any lasting fallout from the “Brexit” debate.

“Irish yields deserve to be more in line with core European yields,” said Mr Hasenstab, who made big profits on his 2011 Irish bet, which he made when the State was locked out of financial markets and its 10-year bond yields peaked around 15%.

Renua Ireland will & could form part of the next government says Lucinda Creighton

  

RENUA IRELAND HAVE CLAIMED THEY WILL HOLD THE BALANCE OF POWER AFTER THE ELECTION and it could be with Fine gael.

Lucinda Creighton’s party are convinced they will enter coalition with Fine Gael despite remaining “wary” of the party, she said today.

Ms Creighton said her party is adamant it will form part of the next government, whatever that may be.

“It is important for us and indeed it is important for the Irish people that Renua Ireland will be a part of the next government,” she said.

“You have to look at the numbers and at the moment the likelihood is; it’s not a certainty, but the likelihood is that the next Government will be led by Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.”

However she added that there is “no difference” between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael who have played “Punch and Judy politics” over the past decade.

“Anything can happen. It’s going to be a long campaign. We will be mounting a serious challenge and we are just focusing at the moment on winning as many seats as we can,” she said.

She said the party was still wary of Fine Gael considering the length of time it took Mr Enda Kenny to rule out doing a deal with Tipperary Independent TD Michael Lowry.

Speaking on radio this morning, Mr Kenny said he would not consider doing business with Mr Lowry after the General Election.

Mr Creighton said: “I was delighted after 13 opportunities, the Taoiseach finally 10 days later ruled out Michael Lowry. I think it was important…But I think we have to be wary of that.”

Speaking outside Dublin Castle this afternoon, the party outlined their red-line issues which they claim will not be sacrificed in any negotiations for a new coalition after the General Election.

Renua want to establish a public commission on a flat tax which would report in nine months.

They would also introduce a Fiscal Responsibility Bill to prevent “the boom-and-bust politics that has plagued our economy”.

INMO calls off planned industrial action by the nurses

  

NURSES HAVE CALLED OFF PLANNED INDUSTRIAL ACTION AT SEVEN OF THE COUNTRY’S EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS.

Members of the INMO have accepted revised proposals to tackle overcrowding and staffing at emergency departments in hospitals around the country.

They have voted 71% in favour of the revised proposals from the Workplace Relations Commission.

The INMO has said: “(We) will now insist that all of the hospital and group level structures, involving engagement between hospital management and INMO ED members continues on a weekly basis.

“This is necessary to ensure continuous implementation of the, now agreed, System Wide Escalation Policy which places the pressures on Emergency Departments at the centre of all health service activity.

“In accepting these revised proposals our members have reaffirmed that this dispute was always about patient care and ensuring a save working environment which must minimise overcrowding and maximise the ability of nurses to practice safely with manageable workloads.”

INMO General Secretary Liam Doran added: “Our members constantly stated, in all of the information meetings held recently, that this was never about pay and conditions but it was all about ensuring the unacceptable situation, in Emergency Departments, was prioritised, by management.”

Minister for Health Leo Varadkar has welcomed the outcome of the vote.

“I welcome this decisive ‘yes’ vote by Emergency Department INMO members who voted by a margin of 71% to accept the measures proposed by the Workplace Relations Commission,” said Minister Varadkar.

“I can assure staff of my personal commitment to seeing that the agreement is implemented in full.

“We are making progress in reducing ED overcrowding. The number of patients on trollies today is 20% lower than it was this day last year, in spite of the influenza outbreak.”

Lifetime bans proposed for horse doping in Ireland

HORSE RACING IRELAND WELCOMES ANTI-DOPING TASK FORCE RECOMMENDATIONS

    

Horse Racing Ireland chief executive Brian Kavanagh (centre pic)

A lifetime ban for any horse who has been illicitly administered prohibited substances and increased frequency of out of competition testing are two of the main recommendations from a report published on Thursday by Horse Racing Ireland.

The Irish Thoroughbred Industry Anti-Doping Task Force was set up following the disqualification of trainer Philip Fenton in 2014 after he was found to have banned animal substances, including anabolic steroids, in his possession.

In response the HRI board, in conjunction with the Turf Club, established a 16-member industry-wide Anti-Doping Task Force, chaired by HRI vice-chair and now senior steward of the Turf Club, Meta Osborne, to assess the issues.

The findings of the report have now been made public with the main recommendation being a lifetime ban from Irish racing for horses administered a banned drug at any time, anywhere in the world.

They also advocate no automatic therapeutic use exemption for anabolic steroids, while underlining the need for the Irish racing and breeding industries to have access to a laboratory which meets the best international standards, is based in Ireland and operates under either a permanent relationship with, or a long-term support from, the Irish racing authorities.

Augmented out of competition testing and a significant increase in the number of samples collected and analysed each year to achieve operational and cost efficiencies are two other key points.

A single national equine drug control laboratory should be considered, according to the report, with the need for the Turf Club to establish a dedicated Anti-Doping Unit also underlined.

Educational programmes and clear guidelines as well as ongoing research into the issue of doping are also recommended, with the Task Force reconvening in six months to review progress.

HRI has approved expenditure of over €1.8 million to purchase new laboratory equipment and ensure appropriate facilities while it will also support the cost of additional sampling, higher levels of out of competition testing and the creation of a new the anti-doping unit through its integrity budget.

Brian Kavanagh, HRI chief executive, said: “Setting up the Anti-Doping Task Force was vital in order to protect the reputation of our racing and breeding industry, and Horse Racing Ireland welcomes the consensus reached and the strong recommendations that have been set out.

“The industry is worth over €1 billion annually to the Irish economy, and our international position as a world leader must be maintained.

“HRI will support the recommendations of the Task Force through the significant and continuing investment that is being announced today.

“The issue of illegal performance-enhancing drugs is one that needs to be addressed worldwide and Ireland is now to the fore in tackling this problem head on. Our primary concern is to ensure that Ireland’s racing and breeding industries have drug testing systems that meet the best international standards.”

Osborne was pleased to see the recommendations being implemented so swiftly in the sport.

She said: “I am delighted that the Anti-Doping Task Force has produced an agreed consensus statement and report which the industry has been able to support and unite behind.

“The key objectives are to eliminate cheating and to ensure that horse welfare is paramount.

“The announcement of a lifetime ban for any horse found to have been illicitly administered any substance “prohibited at all times“ including anabolic steroids is an unequivocal statement that cheats will not be tolerated within Irish racing.

“The Turf Club will continue to work with Horse Racing Ireland in this vital area to ensure that we have the resources and structures in place to maintain the highest levels of integrity in our sport, and thereby to safe-guard the international reputation of the Irish thoroughbred industry.”

DNA evidence unearths major population shift at the last Ice Age-end

DNA evidence from the ancient bones and teeth of people who lived in Europe near the end of the last Ice Age shows a major shift in the population around 14,500 years ago during a period of severe climatic instability.

    

DNA evidence from the ancient bones and teeth of people who lived in Europe near the end of the last Ice Age shows a major shift in the population around 14,500 years ago during a period of severe climatic instability.

“We uncovered a completely unknown chapter of human history: a major population turnover in Europe at the end of the last Ice Age (Late Pleistocene to the early Holocene),” said lead author Johannes Krause of the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History in Germany.

The researchers pieced this missing history together by reconstructing the genomes of 35 hunter-gatherer individuals who lived in Italy, Germany, Belgium, France, the Czech Republic, and Romania from 35,000 to 7,000 years ago.

“There has been a real lack of genetic data from this time period, so consequently we knew very little about the population structure or dynamics of the first modern humans in Europe,” Krause added.

The new data show that the mitochondrial DNA of three individuals who lived in present-day Belgium and France before the coldest period in the last Ice Age belonged to haplogroup M.

This is remarkable because the M haplogroup is effectively absent in modern Europeans but is extremely common in modern Asian, Australasian and native American populations.

The absence of the M haplogroup and its presence in other parts of the world had previously led to the argument that non-African people dispersed on multiple occasions to spread across Eurasia and Australasia.

The researchers say the discovery of this maternal lineage in Europe in the ancient past now suggests instead that all non-Africans dispersed rapidly from a single population, at a time they place around 50,000 years ago.

Then, at some later stage, the M haplogroup was apparently lost from Europe.

The biggest surprise, however, was evidence of a major turnover of the population in Europe around 14,500 years ago, as the climate began to warm.

“Our model suggests that during this period of climatic upheaval, the descendants of the hunter-gatherers who survived through the Last Glacial Maximum were largely replaced by a population from another source,” explained Adam Powell, senior author at the Max Planck Institute in a paper published in the Cell Press journal Current Biology.

The next step is to construct a more comprehensive picture of the past by analysing the complete genomes of these ancient individuals along with additional specimens representing more times and places.  

Donie's Ireland daily news BLOG update

Lucinda Creighton (Renua) claims Refugees coming to Ireland should be screened

   

Lucinda Creighton launches her new political party.

REFUGEES BEING RELOCATED TO IRELAND SHOULD BE SCREENED IN LIGHT OF LAST WEEK’S HORRIFIC SEX ATTACKS IN GERMANY, ACCORDING TO RENUA LEADER LUCINDA CREIGHTON.

The Dublin Bay South TD today said it is not “xenophobic” to hold the belief that a screening programme should be in place.

Ireland has committed to accommodate up to 4,000 refugees who have fled war-torn countries such as Syria and Iraq.

However, today’s Sunday Independent/Millward Brown opinion poll reveals that almost three in five people (59pc) are concerned that terrorists could enter Ireland under the guise of the relocation programme.

The poll was conducted prior to shocking incidents in Cologne, Germany last week, which involved a spate of attacks on women.

Speaking on Newstalk today, Ms Creighton called for tough screening rules.

“I don’t think it’s xenophobic or unreasonable to say that there should be screening, and that there should be a process and mechanism in place to ensure that refugees are genuine refugees and not economic migrants,” she said.

I think in a sense there has been an attempt to silence anyone who questions the kind of complete open door policy. It has to be open door, but it has to involve screening in terms of security but also in terms of the kind of cultural issues that are emerging in Germany,” she added.

FF calls on Central Bank to fast-track review of mortgage rules

SINN FÉIN FINANCE SPOKESMAN SAYS BANK SHOULD ‘TREAD CAREFULLY’

   

Fianna Fáil Spokesperson on Finance Michael McGrath above left.

Fianna Fáil finance spokesman Michael McGrath has called on the Central Bank to undertake a review of its controversial mortgage rules now rather than wait until the summer to avoid a prolonged period of market disruption.

The Central Bank’s new governor Philip Lane (above right) has promised to review the current raft of mortgage lending restrictions in six months.

His comments in an interview recently mean mortgage applications throughout the spring and early summer – the busiest time for house sales – will continue to be carried out under the current rules.

Prof Lane said the rules could be tightened or loosened and that he remained open-minded at this point.

However, Mr McGrath maintains a six-month wait for the review would have a corrosive effect on an already sluggish market.

“Given the time it takes to assess submissions and implement any revisions decided upon, it is likely to be the end of the year at the earliest before any substantial changes are made,” he said.

“There is a very real risk that this will result in the already sluggish mortgage market grinding to a halt as potential buyers and sellers wait to see the impact of any new regulations.”

Mr McGrath said his party want the Central Bank to examine the potential of allowing 25 per cent of the deposit requirement for a first-time buyer be met by taking in to account rent payments over the previous three years.

Sinn Féin finance spokesman Pearse Doherty urged caution saying the Central Bank should “tread carefully” to not give any impression that the spirit of the rules could be undermined.

“It was always conceived that these reviews would be monitored and altered as the evidence dictated,” Mr Doherty said.

He said Sinn Féin was “acutely aware” of the immediate impact the rules have had on first time buyers and young families wishing to move on to a more suitable home for growing families.

“Review of the rules is welcome and sensible but I hope the Central Bank treads carefully and does not give any hope to those parties who have learned nothing and are calling for a return to the politics and economics of the bubble,” he said.

Ireland heading for a great sugar crash landing

     

There is nothing sweet about Ireland’s sugar statistics. We are the fourth highest consumer of sugar in the world, according to Euromonitor research. Yes, the world, coming in behind the US, Germany and the Netherlands.

“It’s shocking,” says Dr Eva Orsmond, who says she sees the effects of excessive sugar consumption daily at her clinics in Dublin, Kilkenny, and Galway.

“The problem is that most people don’t realise the amount of ‘free’ or added sugar that is lurking in food, even savoury food,” she adds.

In Sugar Crash, a one-off documentary that airs on RTÉ One on Monday, DrEva reveals what our love affair with sugar is costing us in hospital admissions, dental health, long-term illnesses and premature death.

The figures are stark. The average Irish person consumes a whopping 24 teaspoons daily. To put that in context, last year the World Health Organisation revised its guidelines to recommend that adults get no more than 10 per cent of their daily calories from ‘free’ sugars or those added by manufacturers.

Counting in teaspoons, that means adults should limit themselves to 10 teaspoons a day — or six to get health benefits.

“It’s easy to identify some sugars, such as fizzy drinks and the biggest offenders, breakfast cereals,” says Dr Eva. “But people mightn’t realise that a single glass of [some brands of] orange juice might be twice the daily recommended intake for a child.”

She says she was shocked to find that sugar was hiding in all kinds of unexpected foods, such as crackers and bread.

“I found a lot of things hard to swallow, even as a health professional” she tells Feelgood. “For instance, I thought my sons (aged 18 and 19) would not be harmed by a little sugar as they will burn it off, but that is wrong. A high intake of sugar is still a risk factor for disease.”

She says looking at the sugar content on labels was also a salutary lesson. In the documentary, she charts the progress of a Kilkenny family who were stunned to find out how much sugar was in their ‘normal’ healthy diet.

For instance, an average bowl of muesli with a pot of flavoured yoghurt at breakfast sounds like a healthy option but, depending on the brand, that single meal could constitute your entire daily intake of sugar.

Sugar may not always be visible, but its effects are all around us in stark relief. Between 1997 and 2007, obesity levels rose here by a staggering 67 per cent and with them, our love of sugar.

Who can say why sugar consumption rates rose so sharply. Part of it might be explained by the increased disposable income of the Celtic Tiger years which we spent on processed and pre-prepared food, Dr Eva speculates.

The ‘low fat’ fad is partly to blame too, she believes. Manufacturers took the fat out of food, but replaced it with sugar, which has no nutritional value and doesn’t fill you up. “In fact,” Dr Eva says, “foods with high sugar make you want more of them”.

And so the cycle goes on, leading to obesity, high cholesterol, an increased risk of heart disease, Type 2 diabetes and growing dental problems.

The number of teeth extractions among children is also on the rise due to excessive sugar intake.

“No matter how much you brush your teeth, it will not be enough to compensate for the excessive sugar intake,”she says.

One of the most chilling findings is that part of the problem is hidden. Food labels don’t distinguish between added sugars and those that occur naturally. Though, if a product is high in sugar — added or not — it is probably best avoided, Dr Eva says.

And although fruit is not counted as a ‘free’ sugar, it is a good idea to monitor your intake of that too, she adds.

But it is not all doom and gloom. Adopting a healthy diet can very quickly undo much of the damage done by excessive sugar.

“We all need to go back to basics,” says Dr Eva, advocating a return to home-cooking with fresh ingredients. After that, she says, the solution is “education, education, education”.

NASA shares incredible pictures of rippled sand dunes on the planet Mars

    

The beautiful Namib sand dune on Mars left pic. and right a picture of Downwind of the Namib sand dune.

NASA has unveiled spectacular photographs of majestic sand dunes on

It is the first chance scientists have had to examine active sand formations on any planet other than Earth.

The Curiosity Mars rover, NASA’s car-sized reconnaissance robot, has been based on Mars’ surface for more than three years now, and successfully captured the stunning images.

The photographs depict the enormous, segmented Namib dune which stands at a whopping 13 – 17 feet tall.

“One of the first things they want to explore is the grain size and morphology of different parts of the slipface,” Lauren Edgar, a member of the Curiosity team and a USGS Astrogeology Science Centre research geologist said.

The ripples on the dunes change over time due to the prevailing winds on Mars.

After  short period of time, so much sand builds up that the sand at the bottom can’t sustain the weight of the sand on top, and a tiny avalanche occurs

The Namib sand dune is just one of many dunes located in the Bagnold Dunes field on the northwestern side of Mars.

It is situated very near to where Curiosity first touched down back in 2012.

Your Neanderthal DNA may have passed on to you allergies

   

In the American Journal of Human Genetics, two research teams reported that in many people, a group of genes that governs the first line of defense against pathogens was probably inherited from Neanderthals.

If you sneeze when flowers bloom in the spring and tear up in the presence of a cat, your Neanderthal DNA may be to blame.

About 2% of the DNA in most people alive today came from trysts between ancient humans and their Neanderthal neighbours tens of thousands of years ago, recent studies have shown. Scientists are trying to determine what, if any, impact that Neanderthal genetic legacy has on our contemporary lives.

In two papers published last week in the American Journal of Human Genetics, two research teams reported that in many people, a group of genes that governs the first line of defense against pathogens was probably inherited from the Neanderthals.

These same genes also appear to play a role in some people’s allergic reaction to things such as pollen and pet fur, the scientists said.

“It’s a bit speculative, but perhaps this is some kind of trade-off,” said Janet Kelso, a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, and senior author of one of the new studies. “Increased resistance to bacterial infection was advantageous, but may have resulted in some increased sensitivity to nonpathogenic allergens.”

About 50,000 years ago, the modern humans who left Africa encountered Neanderthal settlements in the Middle East, scientists believe. On some occasions, these meetings led to couplings whose legacy is apparent in the genomes of people with ancestors from Europe and Asia.

Not everyone with Neanderthal DNA inherited the same genes. But the immunity genes appear to be more prevalent than others.

Among some Asian and European populations, researchers found that these particular Neanderthal genes can be found in 50 percent of people.

“That’s huge,” said Lluis Quintana-Murci, an evolutionary geneticist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris and senior author of the other study. “It came as a big surprise to us.”

The findings imply that these Neanderthal genes must have served our ancestors well if they are still in our genome today, and especially at such high frequency, said Peter Parham, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Stanford School of Medicine. If the DNA weren’t valuable, it would have been flushed out of the human gene pool.

“It suggests there was a benefit for the migrating modern human and the archaic human to get together,” said Parham, who wasn’t involved in the research. “What has survived is a hybridization of those populations.”

Both of the research groups report on a cluster of three genes — known collectively as TLR6-TLR1-TLR10 — that makes up part of the body’s innate immune response to invading bacteria and viruses.

The innate immune response is different from the acquired immune response that we get through exposure to pathogens, either through vaccines or simply getting sick. Innate immunity kicks in first, and if it’s successful, it can destroy a pathogen in a few hours, before we even know we are sick.

Because this innate immune response is so useful, it has been a strong site of positive selection over time, Quintana-Murci said.

Though both groups of researchers came to the same conclusion that Neanderthal DNA plays an important role in immunity, the teams were asking different questions at the outset of their studies.

Quintana-Murci’s group is trying to understand how microscopic pathogens have influenced the human genome as our species has evolved.

Because infectious diseases have killed so many people throughout history, it makes sense that genes involved in immunity would spread through natural selection.

For their study, Quintana-Murci and his colleagues examined 1,500 innate-immunity genes in people and matched them up with a previously published map of the Neanderthal DNA in the human genome.

The team calculated the percentage of Neanderthal DNA in innate-immunity genes as well as in other genes. When they compared them, they saw that innate-immunity genes had much higher proportions of Neanderthal sequences.

Kelso’s group, on the other hand, is interested in ancient genomes like those of Neanderthals. In particular, her team aims to uncover the functional consequences of long-ago interbreeding between modern humans and Neanderthals.

The Max Planck Institute scientists analyzed the genomes of thousands of present-day people from all over the world, looking for evidence of extended regions with high similarity to the DNA of Neanderthals. Then they checked how often they saw those Neanderthal-like DNA sequences in humans alive today.

“What emerged was this region containing three genes involved in the innate-immune system,” she said.

Both research groups said there is still much work to be done to determine how this Neanderthal DNA helped humans survive.

However, they are already certain that interbreeding with Neanderthals aided early humans as they faced new dangers after leaving Africa.

“The things we have inherited from Neanderthals are largely things that have allowed us to adapt to our environment,” Kelso said. “This is perhaps not completely surprising.”

Because Neanderthals had lived in Europe and western Asia for about 200,000 years before modern humans got there, they were probably already well adapted to the local climate, foods and pathogens.

“By interbreeding with these archaic people, modern humans could then acquire some of these adaptations,” Kelso said.

Parham of Stanford said the results are convincing, especially since they were made by two independent groups that essentially confirmed each other.

The results add to a growing body of work that highlights our debt to our Neanderthal relatives.