Donie's Ireland daily news BLOG

Ireland’s tax revenues lower than expected for last month of July due to VAT shortfall

LATEST EXCHEQUER RETURNS SHOW TAX REVENUE OF €26.6BN COLLECTED IN FIRST SEVEN MONTHS

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AT THE END OF JULY, THE EXCHEQUER RECORDED A SURPLUS OF €862 MILLION VERSUS A DEFICIT OF €648 MILLION FOR THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR.

Tax revenues came in below target in July due to a shortfall in VAT receipts, while corporation taxes and excise duties also came in lower than expected. The figures indicate that consumer spending growth may have slowed in the run-up to the Brexit vote.

Tax revenues remain ahead of target for the first seven months as a whole, but analysts and government officials will now be closely monitoring the monthly figures to see if weaker trends persist in the run up to the Budget. Official forecasts for next year will be finalised in October and will determine whether, as expected, there will be €1 billion available for additional tax and spending measures on Budget day.

The latest exchequer returns show tax revenue of €26.6 billion was collected in the first seven months of the year, up €2 billion or 8.5% versus the same period in 2015 and €644 million or 2.5% ahead of target.

However, total tax revenue for the month of July were down €98 million or 2.3% below expectations as VAT receipts came in €61 million or 3.3% below the €1.83 billion target.

On a cumulative basis, Vat receipts are now down €292 million or 3.5% below expectations. However, they are still 4.2% ahead in year-on-year terms for the first seven months. This suggests that consumer spending is running ahead of last year, but that the rate of growth may have slowed in recent months.

Income tax receipts of €1.5 billion were collected in the month of July, up €65 million or 4.5% versus the same month a year earlier and on target. This reflects rising employment and some increase in wages.

IN A NUTSHELL WHAT ARE THE EXCHEQUER RETURNS?

The monthly exchequer returns provide details of taxes collected by the Exchequer and government spending. They are one of the most up-to-date indicators of activity in the economy. The figures for each month are published on the second working day of the following month.

The figures give details of taxes collected in all the main areas – such as income tax, VAT, corporation tax and so on. They also show how much each Government department spent. The key comparisons are usually with the same month last year, and with the targets set by the Department of Finance.

Corporation tax receipts were 16.5% or €23 million lower than forecast for the month. However, on a cumulative basis, corporation receipts are up €482 million or 17.2% higher than expected at €3.3 billion. Corporation taxes have been very volatile, and some large one-off payments boosted figures in earlier months.

Also suggesting some weakness in spending, excise duties were €25 million or 5% below target in July. Duties of €3.6 billion were recorded at the end of the month, this is €376 million or 11.5% ahead of target and up €723 million or 24.7% in year-on-year terms.

Stamp duties receipts were €3 million above expectations at €114 million. In cumulative terms, stamp duties of €581 million at the end of July were down €35 million or 5.7% against target but up 11.8% versus the same period a year ago.

The exchequer returns show €21 million was collected in local property tax receipts last month, bringing the total for the year to date to €315 million.

At the end of July, the exchequer recorded a surplus of €862 million versus a deficit of €648 million for the same period last year. The Department of Finance attributed the improvement to a year-on-year rise in tax revenue, which was partially offset by increased expenditure and reduced non-tax revenue.

The latest returns show non-tax revenue of €2.27 billion at the end of July, were down €224 million or 9.1% versus last year. The decrease was largely due to a one-off dividend of €203 million received by the Exchequer from ESB early in 2015.

A MIXED BAG?

Conall Mac Coille, chief economist at Davy described the latest returns as a “mixed bag.”

“On balance, the weakness in the month probably reflects volatility and the unwinding of some of the strength in corporation taxes earlier in the year,” he said.

Elsewhere, Peter Vale, tax partner at Grant Thornton said the exchequer figures would reassure the Government that there will be some fiscal space in October’s budget, notwithstanding the impact of Brexit.

“Slightly worryingly, the figures show VAT receipts continuing to lag behind target. If this trend accelerates post Brexit, we could see the VAT figures falling further behind at the end of September. A resultant drop in VAT receipts could impact on the scope for tax cuts or spending increases in the Budget,” said Mr Vale.

“On the positive side, income tax figures remain on track, reflecting the strong labour market. Again, it will likely be some time before we see the impact of Brexit flowing through to the tax numbers, he added.

Philip O’Sullivan, chief economist at Investec said he saw little reason to quibble with the Department of Finance’s cautious guidance of a full-year deficit of €2 billion versus a deficit of €1.5 billion for the first seven months of 2016. for the same period a year earlier, a € 3.1 billion deficit was recorded.

Ireland’s youth unemployment rate rises to 16% for month of July

CSO FIGURES SHOW OVERALL UNEMPLOYMENT UNCHANGED FROM JUNE, BUT DOWN FROM LAST YEAR

   

THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE UNEMPLOYED IN IRELAND IN JULY WAS 169,000, A RATE OF 7.8%, DOWN BY 29,800 FROM JULY 2015, ACCORDING TO CSO DATA.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.8% in July versus June, but was down from 9.2% compared to the same month a year ago.

New figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show the number of people unemployed last month was 169,000. This marks a decline of 29,800 compared to July 2015.

The youth unemployment rate rose to 16% from 15.4% last month, the latest data show.

The number of males unemployed fell by just 100 from June to July to 107,900. The number of women unemployed rose by 100 versus the previous month to 61,200.

Overall, the unemployment rate for men stood at 9.1% at the end of last month, unchanged from June and down from 10.6% for July 2015. The unemployment rate for women was unchanged versus June at 6.2% but declined from 7.6 per cent compared to the same month a year earlier.

Davy economist Conall Mac Coille said that while the latest figures should be taken as evidence of a slowdown in the labour market, initial estimates tend to be revised heavily. He added that it is too early to discern any negative impact from Brexit on hiring patterns.

Leo Varadkar wants new sugar tax in next October’s Irish Budget

     

LEO VARADKAR BELIEVES THE MEASURES SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN NEXT OCTOBER’S IRISH BUDGET.

SOCIAL PROTECTION MINISTER LEO VARADKAR HAS SAID HE IS IN FAVOUR OF INTRODUCING A SO-CALLED ‘SUGAR TAX’ IN THE BUDGET.

A ten cent levy on a can of fizzy drink would yield the exchequer €100m, according to pre-budget documents published by the Department of Finance.

While Mr Varadkar said he believes the measures should be included in October’s Budget, he warned that a sugar tax is not the complete solution to tackling obesity.

“Yeah. I think a sugar tax is a good idea. I don’t think it’s the solution to obesity. A lot of different measures are going to be required to get on top of obesity,” he said.

The Dublin West TD also acknowledged Independent.ie reports that the drinks industry is considering legal action to stave off such a tax.

“I suppose when you introduce any change, any new tax, or any change to the law, there’s always the risk it could be challenged legally by those who don’t agree with it,” Mr Varadkar said.

Mr Varadkar made the remarks at the launch of the 23rd edition of the ‘Working for You’ handbook by the Irish National Organisation of the Unemployed (INOU).

At the event in Dublin City on Wednesday, INOU chairperson Ann Fergus called on Mr Varadkar to fully restore the Christmas Bonus in the budget.

The minister told reporters the issue will be considered during discussions with Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe.

Galway City sets sights on All-Ireland Fleadh Cheoil for 2020

     

PICTURES FROM FLEADH CHEOIL NA HÉIREANN IN SLIGO LAST YEAR 2015.

GALWAY MAY HOST FLEADH CHEOIL NA HÉIREANN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2020.

Galway will be applying to host Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann in 2020, a festival that could boost city coffers to the tune of €50m.

Never before held in Galway City, the massive event was only ever staged in County Galway in 1955 when it took place in Loughrea.

The application to host the event in the city is being made by the Moycullen branch of Galway Comhaltas. The chairman of the Moycullen branch, Caomhan Ó Fatharta, told the Galway City Tribune they were laying the groundwork for their application by manning a stand at the All-Ireland Fleadh in Ennis from August 9, urging other counties to throw their support behind the bid.

The branch has received a commitment from NUI Galway to host the event in three years’ time after successfully holding the county final last year, with plans to hold the Connacht finals there next year.

“Galway never had the facilities to apply for this before but now the university has two big halls – the Bailey Allen and the Kingfisher – that can hold 2,200 people. We will possibly need a third venue such as the Big Top which holds 1,000,” explained Caomhan.

“We have a lot of work done on this in the Moycullen branch. We’re trying to sort out meetings with the City Council, County Council and councillors to all get behind this as well as the 2020 team because of the enormous cost implications of staging this – it costs €800,000 to run.

“But we plan to definitely submit an application for 2020 after this year’s All-Ireland.”

The spin-offs are huge. In 2013 the jamboree of music, song and dance went north for the first time to Derry City, which staged the biggest event ever held in Comhaltas’ history when 430,000 attended.

There is no reason why Galway could not be even bigger.

Ennis will stage the event this year and next 2016-17, with a destination yet to be decided for 2018 and 2019. Sligo was the venue for the past two years where it was claimed by those in the know that it was one of the most successful Fleadh Cheoil’s ever.

The venue is decided by votes from branches from across the county and internationally. The week before the Fleadh – which generally takes place on the second or third week of August – is also a hive of activity as young musicians undertake week-long tutoring.

Peadar Brick, chairperson of the Galway Comhaltas, declined to comment ahead of a meeting on the issue next week.

He did point out that NUIG boasted the most appropriate facilities in the county as they were compact, capable of holding large crowds with 20 venues on site for different competitions.

The event is generally held in a location for two years in a row. Due to its timing, it will not clash with the other flagship events in the city such as the Galway International Arts Festival or the Galway Races.

Recently the head of Comhaltas Ceoltóirí Éireann told the Galway City Tribune that he would welcome an application to host a future Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann in Galway City.

Labhrás Ó Murchú, director-general of Comhaltas Ceoltóirí Éireann, remarked: ”Galway City is a wonderful place, it’s such a vibrant city in so many ways because of the language and being so close to the Connemara Gaeltacht and it’s so compact – that’s why Derry was so successful, everything was near together.

“Personally, I spent my younger days in the Connemara Gaeltacht and we used to come into Galway City. I’ve often thought, gosh, wouldn’t this be a great location for the Fleadh Cheoil. The fact that Galway is well used to holding big events like the Galway Races is another Brownie point for Galway that it could well handle large crowds.”

Dwindling prey putting big cats and other carnivores on the brink of extinction

     

WHILE DIRECT INTERFERENCE BY HUMANS IS STILL A MAJOR REASON WHY LARGE CARNIVORES ARE UNDER THREAT, PREY DEPLETION COULD PROVE THEIR ULTIMATE KILLER.

A new report into prey species across hundreds of different animals makes for worrying reading, with large carnivores’ dinner menu shortening by the day.

AN WIDESPREAD ISSUE?

Noting the clouded leopard, tiger, dhole and Ethiopian wolf in a particularly worrying state, each have at least 40% of their prey classified as threatened on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List.

Replace the Ethiopian wolf with the leopard and the collection have over 50% of their prey in decline. Other carnivores like snow leopards are seeing prey declines, too. Sadly protected areas won’t do the job, with just 6.9% of the 494 prey species studied actually traversing in protected zones.

Of course of the carnivores that themselves are on the IUCN Red List, a higher rate of prey depletion was apparent.

The Ethiopian wolf has less prey now than in years past,

AN ENDANGERED SPECIES

“There is a strong relationship between prey and carnivore abundance,” reads the study, led by Christopher Wolf from Oregon State University College of Forestry.

“Approximately 10,000kg of prey supports about 90kg of large carnivore biomass, regardless of species.

“When sufficient prey is unavailable, large carnivore populations will decline, possibly becoming locally extinct. This can be compounded by large carnivore conflicts with livestock, which increase as carnivores search for alternative food sources.”

The study shows just how complicated conservation is, with numerous stakeholders – some unwitting, some not needed to come together and try to thrash out a plan to aid big cats and other predators.

TIGERS AND WOLVES

Earlier this year a report into tiger habitats around the world found that a doubling (and even trebling) of numbers in the wild is possible, as long as the remaining forested areas where they live survive.

Last summer we spoke with Mike Balzer, an Englishman charged with heading up the WWF’s Tigers Alive initiative. At the time, he was hopeful that the drop in the number of wild tigers around the world – which has gone from 100,000 at the start of the 20th century, to just 3,200 now – had stopped.

TIGERS NEED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PREY TO SURVIVE,

National, rather than international, approaches can work on occasion, too. For example Yellowstone National Park in the US has worked wonders on wolf populations.

Though in many examples of numbers bouncing back, human intervention is a common ingredient.

Large predators are said to be “ecologically important” in Wolf’s prey report. As well as keeping crop-damaging herbivores in check, they played a vital role in attracting tourists to developing countries.

“These results show the importance of a holistic approach to conservation that involves protecting both large carnivores directly and the prey upon which they depend,” reads the report.    

Donie's Ireland daily news BLOG update

Noonan says Brexit will not affect Budget as Irish shares rise

UK REFERENDUM MAY DELAY EU RULING ON APPLE’S IRISH TAX AFFAIRS, MINISTER NOW SAYS?

   

MINISTER FOR FINANCE MICHAEL NOONAN AT THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON FINANCE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND REFORM

The Brexit vote will not affect Budget 2017 but its longer term effect on Ireland could be serious depending on what deal the UK agrees with the EU, Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has said.

The tax streams for 2017 are relatively fixed at this stage and contingencies for the initial impact of the Brexit result have already been worked out, Mr Noonan said. Beyond that it will depend on what sort of new arrangement the UK agrees with the EU.

If the UK remains in the single market “then the impact [on Ireland] will be quite low,” Mr Noonan told the Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and An Taoiseach on Thursday. But if a more distant relationship emerges involving tariffs and border posts, “the impact would be bigger… it would be serious.”

IRISH SHARES RISE.

The Minister’s comments came as Irish and other European shares rose for a third straight session as they continued to claw back some of the ground lost in the immediate aftermath of the UK referendum. The Iseq added 1%, while the FTSE 100 gained 2.3% in London. Meanwhile, the market interest rate, or yield, on the Government’s 10-year bonds fell to a record low of 0.509% as investors continued to speculate that the European Central Bank will add stimulus to limit the fallout from Brexit.

Mr Noonan said post-Brexit market movements have been bad for the UK in terms of exchange rates and stock exchange values, with the international expectation being that the UK will become a weaker economy. He said the UK quitting the EU presents potential economic and foreign direct investment (FDI) advantages for Ireland, though if the British government feels it is losing out “they’ll probably adjust policy to forestall that.”

Meanwhile, Mr Noonan said the UK vote may delay the EU’s decision on whether iPhone-maker Apple’s tax dealings in this country breached state-aid rules. While he said it had been rumoured that the EU would deliver its final ruling on its case against Ireland in July, the possibility of an adverse finding and large tax bill for “an American company operating in Europe” next month is now less likely, following the the referendum.

Enda Kenny

Also speaking to the committee, Taoiseach Enda Kenny insisted that the best thing for Ireland would be if the UK retains access to the single market. But he added that for this to happen the country must accept the key principles of the EU, including the free movement of people.

He said the new British prime minister, due to be in place by September 9th, will be given a short period of time to work out their strategy before they will be expected to initiate formal exit negotiations.

The process should last about two years, after which a short extension may be granted. However, if the UK and EU fail to reach an agreement, then World Trade Organisation rules will come into effect. Mr Kenny said he hoped this didn’t happen.

Mr Kenny also said he has made the EU aware that Ireland’s interest are in maintaining the common travel area between Ireland and the UK, protecting the peace process, maintaining the open border between the Republic and the North and maintaining trade links between Ireland and the UK.

Ireland’s Seanad to invite Nicola Sturgeon to address it on Brexit

GREAT AFFINITY BETWEEN IRELAND AND SCOTLAND, SAYS FINE GAEL SENATOR PADDY BURKE

  

SCOTLAND’S FIRST MINISTER NICOLA STURGEON (above) DELIVERS A SPEECH DURING A MEDIA CONFERENCE AT THE SCOTLAND HOUSE IN BRUSSELS.

Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon is to be invited to address the Seanad on the UK’s exit from the EU before it adjourns for the summer recess later this month.

The proposal was made by Fine Gael Senator Paddy Burke, who said there was a great affinity between parts of Ireland and Scotland, with both having a lot in common.

“We heard a lot recently about countries that want to leave the EU, but Scotland wants to stay in it,’’ he added.

Sinn Féin Senator Rose Conway-Walsh said she agreed with the proposal.

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE

“People seem to be fighting the cause for Scottish independence and its right to have a say over its own destiny, but they need to show the same consideration and fight with the same vehemence for our comrades in the North,’’ she added.

“It cannot be done for one without the other.’’

She said she admired and respected Ms Sturgeon and would be very happy to hear from her in the House.

Later, during a debate on delivering sustainable full employment, Fine Gael Senator Neale Richmond said a week from the referendum some people had expressed frustration that Brexit was still being discussed.

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT

While he was sorry to disappoint them, the referendum result was extremely important in the context of delivering sustainable full employment.

Mr Richmond said it was important to emphasise Ireland would continue to be an EU member, with full access to the single market and retaining all of the advantages for inward investment.

A report produced in May suggested Brexit could push about €6 billion of investment into Ireland’s financial services sector, he said.

A bank already moving some operations to Ireland was Switzerland’s Credit Suisse, which had said in December it would make Dublin its primary hub for servicing hedge funds in Europe and move staff from London to here, said Mr Richmond.

“A report from Bloomberg earlier this week compared Dublin with Paris, Frankfurt, Luxembourg, Amsterdam and even Edinburgh as possible destinations for financial institutions now looking to relocate from London in a post-Brexit world,’’ he added.

“A glowing recommendation brought just two negative concerns to light: a relative lack of office space and high personal tax rates.’’

LOW PAY SCANDAL

Sinn Féin Senator Paul Gavan said there was a scandal of low pay in Ireland, particularly in the hospitality industry.

“It is an industry that for some time has enjoyed a generous tax break in terms of a reduced VAT rate of nine per cent, costing taxpayers €650 million a year,’’ he added.

“We know that the hotel industry is booming, with record levels of room occupancy, but that stands in stark contrast to the terms and conditions of workers in that sector.’’

Just 7% of Irish parents think their kids may be overweight?

DENIAL?  REALITY IS THAT 1 IN 4 IS OVERWEIGHT OR OBESE

    

LESS THAN HALF OF IRISH PARENTS KNOW WHAT WEIGHT THEIR CHILDREN ARE, WHILE JUST 7% FEEL THAT THEIR CHILDREN MAY BE OVERWEIGHT, NEW DATA HAS SHOWN.

According to the latest Pfizer Health Index, Only 47% of parents know what weight their children are and the vast majority do not think they are overweight, despite the fact that currently, one in four children in Ireland is overweight or obese.

When asked if their children were undertaking 60 minutes of physical activity per day – the recommended daily amount – just 20% of parents said that their children were achieving this. The average was 60 minutes per day four times a week.

“One in four of our children is currently overweight or obese, yet because the norm has changed we are not recognising this reality. Children’s social, emotional and physical health is being harmed. We as a society must partner with industry and the Government to turn the tide on childhood obesity in Ireland as a matter of priority,” commented Dr Cliodhna Foley-Nolan of Safefood.

Parents were also asked about the use of screens in their home. The average length of time children spend looking at various screens each day is two hours and 16 minutes according to these findings.

Some 15% of children bring a screen, such as a smartphone or tablet, to bed with them, and 24% of parents have no rule in relation to screens in bed.

“Modern technology is undoubtedly impacting on the health of our family unit and we can see that children are more sedentary than before. There has been exponential growth in the use of screens particularly with mobiles and tablets and in Ireland we currently have more mobile phones than we do people.

“While technology is a powerful tool, it is important that parents aim to be in charge of the use of that technology, rather than technology being in charge of you,” said family psychotherapist, Dr John Sharry.

The health index also looked at family health in general. It asked parents to rank health priorities for their children. The biggest priority for parents was that their children reached their developmental milestones (31%). The second most important priority was that their children would have access to GP care (29%).

Other areas that were seen as priorities by parents included the social development of their child, including developing friendships, educational performance and having their children vaccinated.

This is the 11th annual Pfizer Health Index to be carried out. This year’s index was based on a survey of over 1,200 people aged 16 and older. It was undertaken by Behaviour & Attitudes in April.

Marijuana shown to protect brain cells from Alzheimer’s

  

A NEW STUDY SUGGESTS THAT COMPOUNDS FOUND IN MARIJUANA CAN STAVE OFF THE BRAIN DAMAGING EFFECTS OF ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE. IT’S A PROMISING DISCOVERY, BUT CLAIMS THAT POT CAN PREVENT THIS AGE-RELATED BRAIN DISORDER ARE PREMATURE. PUT THE PIPE AWAY, MAN.

Researchers from the Salk Institute have shown that tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and other compounds found in marijuana can contribute to the removal of toxic proteins, known as amyloid beta, which have been linked to Alzheimer’s disease. This research offers new insight into the role that inflammation plays in this neurological disorder, which could point the way to new drugs.

But this research should be taken with a grain of salt. The protective effects of marijuana were observed in neurons grown in the lab, so it’s not immediately clear if the same process is applicable to living human beings. What’s more, this study doesn’t speak to the potential negative effects of marijuana on the aging brain. It’s far too early to be making claims about pot being some kind of miracle cure for Alzheimer’s, or even as something that can be used as a protective measure. Only time—and further research—will truly tell.

Previous research has shown that compounds in marijuana, called cannabinoids, protect the brain from the symptoms of Alzheimer’s. This new study is unique in that it’s “the first to demonstrate that cannabinoids affect both inflammation and amyloid beta accumulation in nerve cells,” as the study’s lead author David Schubert put it in a statement.

Scientists are fairly certain that these toxins contribute to the growth of damaging plaque deposits in the brain, but they’re not entirely sure about the precise role that’s played by amyloid beta in the process. To learn more, Schubert’s team studied nerve cells that were modified to produce high levels of amyloid beta. Left untreated, these cells were subject to inflammation and higher rates of death. But when the researchers exposed these cells to cannabinoids, the levels of the amyloid beta proteins were reduced. The inflammation disappeared, and the neurons were able to survive. The compounds found within marijuana appeared to be protecting the cells from dying.

As noted, this research was conducted on neurons in a petri dish, so it’s not clear if an actual brain would respond to cannabinoids in the same way. Scientists will need to perform clinical trials to find out.

They’re also going to have to consider the potential tradeoffs of using marijuana as a drug to stave of neurodegeneration. Previous studies have shown that pot can screw around with our memories—which is clearly a bad thing in a disease that already ravages memories. Recent research also shows that marijuana alters the brain reward system, and that that long-term use makes it more difficult to recall memories during middle age.

Pot may very well help with Alzheimer’s, but we’re clearly going to have to be mindful of its negative effects as well.

Pollution has been causing springtime to come early 'Says researchers'

    

ARTIFICIAL LIGHTING HAS BEEN CAUSING SPRINGTIME TO COME EARLY, WITH TREES BURSTING INTO LEAF A WEEK EARLIER IN AREAS WITH MORE LIGHT POLLUTION, SCIENTISTS HAVE FOUND.

Researchers at the University of Exeter compared the amount of artificial night-time light across the country and the date at which new leaves first appeared on trees such as sycamore, oak, ash and beech.

The research drew on “citizen science” data from the Woodland Trust, which asks members of the public to record the signs of the changing seasons, such as bud-burst, in its Nature’s Calendar scheme.

Comparing 13 years of data about when the buds were bursting with satellite images of artificial lighting, the researchers found the key sign of spring was occurring up to 7.5 days earlier in brighter areas, with the effect larger in later-budding trees.

Excluding large urban areas from the analysis showed the advance of spring was even more pronounced, the research published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, found.

This showed the early bud bursting was not simply down to the “heat-island” effect in which cities are slightly warmer than the surrounding areas.

The way the effect was seen across all areas also suggests it is not down to temperature rises, according to the study, which was a collaboration between the university and independent environmental consultants Spalding Associates, in Truro, Cornwall.

The scientists raised concerns that the impact of artificial night-time lighting – such as street lights – on trees would have a knock-on effect on other wildlife.

Winter moths, which feed on emerging oak leaves, could be affected, which in turn could have an impact on birds which feed on them.

Dr Kate Lewthwaite, Woodland Trust citizen science manager, said: “Analysis of Nature’s Calendar data suggests that increased urbanisation is continuing to put pressure on the natural world, in ways that we could not have foreseen.

“As the seasons become less and less predictable, our native wildlife may struggle to keep up with fluctuations that affect habitats and food sources.

“Hopefully this research will lead to new thinking on how to tackle such issues, and will help influence future development decisions.”